Firstlinks

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 670

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:00:00 +1100

Do you pay for investment insights? A new study reveals how paying for information can distort beliefs and investment decisions, reminding us that even experienced investors aren't immune to costly biases.

Ranking three common retirement strategies

Mark LaMonica CFA — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 07:42:00 +1100

The defining challenge of retirement isn't just about building wealth, it's about converting your lifetime savings into sustainable income. A holistic understanding of different strategies can improve long-term outcomes.

Was life really better in the good old days?

Shane Oliver — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 06:40:00 +1100

Are we worse off than previous generations? Lately, there seems to be a heightened level of angst that economic conditions are getting harder and that the two-party political system (and maybe democracy too) is failing voters.

Australia has saved $4.5 trillion for retirement. Here's what matters more

Dwayne Fernandes — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 05:50:00 +1100

Most Australians approaching retirement can tell you the exact dollar value of their super account. But success depends on more than a sizeable balance. Here's four key questions to ask yourself at the start of the financial year.

Who gains in an AI-supercharged economy?

Joe Davis Ph.D. — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 04:41:00 +1100

AI is already reshaping the economy, but companies building transformative technologies rarely capture the greatest long-term value. Instead, those benefits accrue to the users. We may well see this pattern reproduced.

Div 296's million-dollar reset worth $25,000

Trevor Schmid — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 03:19:00 +1100

The 'cost base reset' for the new super tax is being sold as protection for pre-July gains. A worked example shows $1M of protection is worth about $25,000, and the real deadline has not passed.

The forecasting fix that Wall Street missed

Larry Swedroe — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 02:34:00 +1100

Asking whether markets are overpriced may be the wrong question. New research suggests that traditional valuation metrics used to forecast returns may have been misread. Here are five takeaways for investors.

Should a fund manager invest their own money differently?

Joe Wiggins — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 01:13:00 +1100

Investors often like the idea that fund managers should invest client money exactly as they invest their own. But reality is more complicated. Unique circumstances make a different approach rational and, at times, beneficial.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669 with weekend update

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 23:00:00 +1100

Australia's housing debate is spiralling into confusion. Mixed signals, falling prices and contradictions leave affordability hanging in the balance.

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

Meg Heffron — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 07:57:00 +1100

The government's recent deal with the Greens has put SMSF property borrowing on the chopping block. The change raises tricky questions about timing, exceptions and what SMSFs will still be able to buy.

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Mark LaMonica CFA — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 06:33:00 +1100

Australia's market boasts a long record of outperformance, but recent results tell a different story. Is the ASX's lagging performance a temporary setback or evidence that structural forces will keep global markets ahead?

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

Tony Dillon — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 05:47:00 +1100

The 30% minimum tax on capital gains sits at the heart of the budget's proposed reforms. Yet the mechanics reveal anomalies that introduce unexpected distortions that raise questions about its design.

The next phase of Australian equity leadership

Sam Heithersay — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 04:56:00 +1100

For years, banks have powered Australian sharemarket returns. But changing economic conditions, stretched valuations and global trends suggest the next generation of winners may not be found in familiar domestic sectors.

Global market growth hinges on Iran War and AI rollout

Matt Reynolds — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 03:19:00 +1100

Global growth is facing mounting pressure from war, higher oil prices, inflation and trade tensions. But a wave of AI-related investment may prove powerful enough to support economic activity and reshape the outlook for markets.

The retirees who can't spend

Joseph Darby — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 02:45:00 +1100

Why do so many retirees pass away with their wealth intact? Conventional wisdom blames pension rules for the reluctance to spend, but a case study from New Zealand shows that the answer may not be as predictable.

Here’s my investment philosophy. What’s yours?

Christine Benz — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 01:44:00 +1100

Investors often hear they need an investment philosophy, yet few know what that really means. Beneath the jargon sits a simple idea: a handful of core beliefs that shape every financial decision, for better or worse.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 668 with weekend update

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 23:00:00 +1100

A new editor for Firstlinks.

Choose your hedges wisely… and often

Sebastian Mullins — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:38:00 +1100

A new market regime is exposing the fragility of static hedges. With correlations shifting and safe havens flipping, investors must rethink diversification and adopt more adaptive tools to protect capital.

Yields take centre stage again

Phil Strano — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:48:00 +1100

The Australian credit landscape is shifting. Yields are rising, issuance is strong and spreads continue to tighten. Income is reemerging as the dominant driver of returns, though pockets of risk may be building beneath the surface.

The grass is always greener: Rethinking Australian vs global equities

Jamie Wickham — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 05:21:00 +1100

Australia's oncedominant sharemarket is losing ground as others surge ahead, prompting investors to question homebias instincts. Meanwhile, the US market appears attractive. Is it time to revisit your global equity allocation?

Stop asking if there's a stock market bubble. Ask this instead.

Damien Klassen — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 04:27:00 +1100

Markets continue to push onwards despite valuations looking stretched by historical standards. Bubble talk is rampant, however investors may be focusing on the wrong thing. The real story sits deeper than the headlines.

The GST cannot stop inflation

Isaac Gross — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 03:47:00 +1100

Raising the GST when inflation jumps sounds clever on paper, until we examine how it may play out in practice. What is pitched as a simple inflation fix can lead to a sharp turn in the wrong direction for prices.

Why SpaceX is coming to your super fund

Tyger Fitzpatrick — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 02:07:00 +1100

SpaceX's blockbuster debut is grabbing headlines, but the real story for Australian investors is much quieter. Giant listings eventually filter into super funds and ETFs, subtly reshaping portfolios long before most realise.

Is the government being honest with us about its business CGT changes?

Dr Lauchlan Mackinnon — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:24:00 +1100

The government's assurances on smallbusiness concessions don't withstand the scrutiny. Token carveouts and a lack of credible rationale for CGT changes may reshape how Australia rewards longterm value creation.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 667 with weekend update

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 23:00:00 +1100

The downfall of the giant and three lessons for investors.

High quality businesses are on sale

Tim Carleton — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 07:00:00 +1100

Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.

The whirlwind is upon us

Owen A. Lamont Ph.D. — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 06:37:00 +1100

Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.

Inequality destabilises economies

Michael Collins — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 05:16:00 +1100

Extreme wealth concentration is no longer just a side effect of growth. As inequality deepens, its consequences are shifting from a social concern to a broader threat to economic stability and democratic resilience.

Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?

Roger Montgomery — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 04:34:00 +1100

AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.

Budget tax changes only scratch the surface. Here are 4 reforms Australia needs next

Jason Nassios, Beth Webster — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 03:45:00 +1100

The 2026 budget has reignited Australia's tax reform debate, but more work remains. Beneath the surface lies a harder question: what structural reforms are needed to make the country's tax system fit for the future?

Negative gearing: quarantined, not killed

Trevor Schmid — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 02:47:00 +1100

The Budget's negative gearing changes defer deductions rather than deny them, yet a worked example shows quarantining can reduce the tax benefit's present value for buyers of established dwellings.

Family offices have quietly taken over Australian private capital

Hayden Green — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 01:01:00 +1100

In just four years, Australia's private capital landscape has transformed. We are seeing changes across who deploys capital, how deals are structured and why new platforms and investor pathways are rapidly emerging.