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Edition: 187

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Edition 187

  • 27 January 2017

It's traditional for the first edition in a new year to make predictions, and it's easy to pontificate about Trump, China, Russia, Brexit and markets. But how much value is that to long-term investors, when most market punditry in 2016 became an embarrassment? Nobody knows the impact of Trump in the top job, and yet stock markets have rallied strongly after this plunge into the unknown.

Howard Marks on expert opinions as a coin toss

The memo from Howard Marks titled 'Expert Opinion' explains how forecasting is more art than science, and we give too much weight to many expert opinions which are little more than a 50-50 guess.

Second-level thinking on Australian banks

Understanding the difference between first- and second-level thinking can make for more informed investment decisions, finding things others miss or bringing insights others don’t possess.

10 tips for winding up an SMSF

Regardless of why an SMSF needs winding up, certain steps must be followed to do it correctly. This list will help SMSFs trustees stay on the right side of the law and allow for a smoother audit process.

ETF industry predictions for 2017

Australia's ETF industry saw significant growth in 2016, and 2017 looks set to continue this trend, driven especially by younger generations who prefer self-directed investment strategies.

A defining year for super requires your input

An appeal for interested parties to contribute to the government's discussion paper on post-retirement products, now called 'MyRetirement' solutions, to be offered within the superannuation system.

Looking behind the screens of ESG investing

ESG investing is becoming more of a mainstream consideration for investors. Asset managers are facing the challenge of having to meet clients' non-material requirements as well as their long-term financial goals.

Is the super withdrawal and re-contribution strategy over?

The advantages of using re-contributions to minimise taxable components within super will dry up after 1 July 2017, but those in a position to make the most of it now, should consider seeking advice and doing so.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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