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Friday, 10 April 2020
Recently trending How $200 billion is magically createdHoward Marks on 'Which way now?' - UPDATEDWhat are the possible economic effects of COVID-19 on the world economy?Note to Australia: be more French in the COVID-19 warWelcome to Firstlinks Edition 351
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Many of Australia's bank directors lack crucial skills in technology, operations and HR as part of a broader shortage of experience that is as important in dodging scandals as in business success.
The Total Return Investing approach is elegant, it makes intuitive sense and like many investment strategies, it backtests well. But low rates suggest the theory will not hold in future.
Investors should construct an ‘optimal portfolio’ that broadly falls on the efficient frontier. A ‘high growth’ balanced portfolio can deliver higher returns with lower risk than equities alone.
To avoid retreating from making investment decisions during uncertainty, investors are compelled to rely on 'rules of thumb' to guide them in decision-making. Here are many of the more popular commonly-used rules.
Most companies recognise the benefits of employee diversity for better decision-making, but it's not only about choosing people from different backgrounds. There must be an effective means of aggregating views.
Bond markets are far larger than stockmarkets, and the BBB segments in the largest of all in the corporate market. Many analysts have pointed to potential weaknesses but it pays to look a bit deeper.
Nobody revalues their own home each day in the way they revalue listed equities, but does that mean the value is constant? The daily unit price is calculated in some super funds using unlisted asset valuations.
Housing prices and construction rose dramatically until 2016, and since then, low interest rates are helping home owners weather the storm of falling prices. How long until the blue sky shines again?
The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.
We may be close to 30 billion connected devices, offering unlimited investment opportunities, but a technology backlash is being fuelled by fear and uncertainty around three burning issues.
The worldwide trend to populism loosens fiscal restraint, leading to asset price inflation and forcing investors to focus on a range of low probability but potentially material risks.
Two tenets of a successful investment philosophy: risk is the permanent loss of capital, and never succumb to either irrational exuberance or unjustified gloom. It takes discipline and strict adherence.
Australia is in a relatively good position to borrow $200 billion, with the RBA using printed money to buy bonds in the market. The long-term consequences are better than the alternative.
Howard Marks is the largest investor in the world in distressed securities. What does he think after checking the virus positives and negatives, and how much has he changed his mind in only a few days?
In a widely-quoted scenario using estimated attack and fatality rates of coronavirus, about 0.07% of the population of the US dies. That's about 230,000 people, which the market is not ready for.
Andrew Baker is well-known as a superannuation consultant. Now working in the UK, he was caught in France with his family and is in lockdown. He worries Australian policy was too slow.
The $130 billion wage stimulus is astounding in its generosity and scope. It's equivalent to the annual budgets for defence, education and health combined. A cafe owner told me a casual dishwasher who was paid $60 for two hours work a week now wants the $1,500 fortnightly payment. Shane Oliver exclusively explains where $200 billion will come from, and some longer-term consequences.
Hamish Douglass outlines the three main issues in the outbreak of coronavirus, with consequences which may change businesses and consumers forever. Will we face V-shape, U-shape or depression?