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Friday, 29 October 2021
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We are publishing this anonymously knowing it comes from an impeccable source. Bernie Madoff’s fund was almost distributed to retail Australian investors a year before the largest-ever hedge fund fraud was exposed.
Risk isn’t something to be avoided altogether. To achieve returns beyond the government bond rate, some level of risk must be accepted. Assessing which risks to take and calibrating them is the investor's challenge.
Investors often overlook the capital risk in high-yielding stocks. It's better to ensure capital grows and investors can sell a portion each year to make up for the shortfall in income from dividends.
Many of Australia's bank directors lack crucial skills in technology, operations and HR as part of a broader shortage of experience that is as important in dodging scandals as in business success.
The Total Return Investing approach is elegant, it makes intuitive sense and like many investment strategies, it backtests well. But low rates suggest the theory will not hold in future.
Investors should construct an ‘optimal portfolio’ that broadly falls on the efficient frontier. A ‘high growth’ balanced portfolio can deliver higher returns with lower risk than equities alone.
To avoid retreating from making investment decisions during uncertainty, investors are compelled to rely on 'rules of thumb' to guide them in decision-making. Here are many of the more popular commonly-used rules.
Most companies recognise the benefits of employee diversity for better decision-making, but it's not only about choosing people from different backgrounds. There must be an effective means of aggregating views.
Bond markets are far larger than stockmarkets, and the BBB segments in the largest of all in the corporate market. Many analysts have pointed to potential weaknesses but it pays to look a bit deeper.
Nobody revalues their own home each day in the way they revalue listed equities, but does that mean the value is constant? The daily unit price is calculated in some super funds using unlisted asset valuations.
Housing prices and construction rose dramatically until 2016, and since then, low interest rates are helping home owners weather the storm of falling prices. How long until the blue sky shines again?
The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?
Any policy decision needs to recognise who is affected by a change. It pays to check the data on who pays taxes, who owns assets and who earns the income to ensure an equitable and efficient outcome.
With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.
It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.
There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.