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Category: Economy

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Uncharted waters, 2020 and beyond

As we approach the 2020s, we are sailing into uncertain waters at best. These times also have some historical precedents, but we need to make important reforms before our luck runs out.

Policymakers fear cutting stimulus can lead to recession

Prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later. Even today, policymakers are haunted by actions taken in 1937 which led to a loss of production and jobs and a falling GDP.

Five major drivers making Asia the world’s growth engine

Global trends will create opportunities in Asia, including dealing with some of the world's youngest and oldest populations. Australia's Free Trade Agreement with ASEAN this week a valuable step. 

Central banks risk losing their feted ‘independence’

Central bank independence was an appropriate solution when inflation was a threat. In today’s low-inflation, low-growth and high-debt world, even central banks doubt their level of influence.  

Six suspects in the murder of inflation

The market has been looking for inflation for most of the last decade. Low interest rates should increase consumption, borrowing and demand and result in higher prices. What killed inflation?

What do negative rates and other RBA moves mean for investors?

The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures. Negative interest rates are unlikely.

The death of value investing in a low growth world

For value investing to remain a rational strategy, mean reversion must hold true, which requires supportive economic conditions. But historical ranges are not relevant to companies losing market share.

From popular to unthinkable: do political outcomes impact investments?

Political outcomes are challenging to predict. Instead, we need to focus on the investment implications of a variety of policy outcomes. A long term perspective is where valuation intersects with fundamentals.

Recession and why timing markets doesn't pay

Inevitably, with each new development in this cycle, investors as what they can do to prepare for a recession. Our answer: revisit asset allocation, diversify, and review active risks in your portfolio.

Which political party is best for share prices?

Total returns from the local stock market have averaged 10.5% per year since Federation, with 12% p.a. under right-leaning governments and 8% p.a. under left-leaning governments. But it's mainly luck.

Why Budget infrastructure spending matters

Both the Government and Labor have made impressive commitments to infrastructure, but it focusses heavily on roads and rail. Australia's economic potential depends on more essential services.

Budget: Permanent promises, temporary revenues

It's an election budget with money to spend, driven by income and company taxes. It again relies on China, so as the economy and global growth stalls, the long-term revenues are doubtful with spending locked in.

Most viewed in recent weeks

The 20 Commandments of Wealth for retirees

To mark his 80th, we publish a Noel classic plus his timeless commandments for retiree wealth, based on decades of advising clients, writing bestsellers and reaching millions of people every week.

Are you caught in the ‘retirement trap’?

Our retirement savings system is supposed to encourage financial independence but there is a ‘Retirement Trap’ due to the reduction of age pension entitlements as assets and income rise.

The power of letting winners run

Handling extreme winners is a complex task. Conventional wisdom such as “you never go broke taking a profit” often leaves a lot of money on the table as strong growth stocks continue to run.

Tony Togher on why cash isn’t just cash

An active manager of cash and fixed interest funds can achieve higher returns than the cash rate through a selection of other securities while managing both liquidity and income for clients.

'OK Boomer' responses keep on coming

Our sincere thanks for the amazing personal stories of how wealth was built by hard work or where some were not as fortunate. Another 600 readers have taken part in the survey since the last update.

NAB hybrid: one says buy, one says sell, you decide

Differences of opinion make a market, and hybrid specialists disagree on the likelihood that NAB will call one of its hybrids early. It makes a major difference to the expected return on NABHA.

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