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Category: Economics

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Uncharted waters, 2020 and beyond

As we approach the 2020s, we are sailing into uncertain waters at best. These times also have some historical precedents, but we need to make important reforms before our luck runs out.

Policymakers fear cutting stimulus can lead to recession

Prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later. Even today, policymakers are haunted by actions taken in 1937 which led to a loss of production and jobs and a falling GDP.

Five major drivers making Asia the world’s growth engine

Global trends will create opportunities in Asia, including dealing with some of the world's youngest and oldest populations. Australia's Free Trade Agreement with ASEAN this week a valuable step. 

Markets relying on central bank sugar hits

Global central banks are delivering a sugar hit that markets are relying on, but it is unsustainable. Interest rates cannot continue to be cut into negative territory forever. 

Why the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate twice

A close inspection of Reserve Bank Board minutes, the implications of US Fed moves, the way unemployment is measured and how monetary policy is set add up to a picture of further rate cuts.

Central banks risk losing their feted ‘independence’

Central bank independence was an appropriate solution when inflation was a threat. In today’s low-inflation, low-growth and high-debt world, even central banks doubt their level of influence.  

Six suspects in the murder of inflation

The market has been looking for inflation for most of the last decade. Low interest rates should increase consumption, borrowing and demand and result in higher prices. What killed inflation?

What do negative rates and other RBA moves mean for investors?

The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures. Negative interest rates are unlikely.

The death of value investing in a low growth world

For value investing to remain a rational strategy, mean reversion must hold true, which requires supportive economic conditions. But historical ranges are not relevant to companies losing market share.

From popular to unthinkable: do political outcomes impact investments?

Political outcomes are challenging to predict. Instead, we need to focus on the investment implications of a variety of policy outcomes. A long term perspective is where valuation intersects with fundamentals.

Recession and why timing markets doesn't pay

Inevitably, with each new development in this cycle, investors as what they can do to prepare for a recession. Our answer: revisit asset allocation, diversify, and review active risks in your portfolio.

Which political party is best for share prices?

Total returns from the local stock market have averaged 10.5% per year since Federation, with 12% p.a. under right-leaning governments and 8% p.a. under left-leaning governments. But it's mainly luck.

Most viewed in recent weeks

OK Boomer: fessing up that we’ve had it good

The pre-Boomer generations faced global wars and depressions, but Australians born after 1946 have enjoyed prosperity. Superannuation, education, strong markets and surging property prices locked in gains.  

Four reasons to engage a financial adviser

The value of financial advice is increasingly questioned after the Royal Commission and changes to advice business models, but the case for financial advice for many people remains strong.

Reader poll on the home in pension assets test

Two-thirds of the responses to our reader poll say the family home should be included in some way in the age pension assets test, but the comments show it is an emotional and divisive subject. 

Focus on quality yield, not near-term income

Many investors are tempted by high yields on shares, but when they are not sustainable, and in weak businesses, the outcome is disappointing compared with better quality and lower yields. 

Retire ‘retirement’: how brands misunderstand ageing

Over 50s make up 27% of Australia’s population and hold 50% of private wealth. Yet only 2% of marketing briefs focus on targeting this audience, which is active, ambitious, purposeful and diverse.

How Australia can achieve an A grade retirement system

Australia came third in the world on the pension index, but with a B rated system. Here are the steps the country can take to join the elite A grade and ensure more people finance a secure retirement.

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