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Friday, 29 October 2021
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The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.
The pandemic has shown that the emerging market complex is more mature, with central bank discipline, strong demand for commodities and a positive outlook for currencies. Diversification into EM is worth a look.
There are many reasons why the market places too much emphasis on the short term, but taking a long view on growth, inflation, markets and sectors will lead to better policies and investments.
In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?
While REITs and some value stocks are considered 'inflation-sensitive' assets, the data provide little support that they are good inflation hedges, and energy stocks and commodities are too volatile. So what works?
They are six of the greatest businesses ever and should form part of the global portfolios of all investors. The market sees risk in inflation and valuations but the companies are positioned for outstanding growth.
Every five years, we receive a snapshot of what Australia may look like in 40 years. We will live longer with more spending on health, pensions and super but with fewer workers. Where will 40 million people live?
There are many reasons why the worries about inflation are overstated and investors should protect their portfolios against falling inflation rather than rising. The economy is completely different to the 1970s.
The inflation genie is still in the bottle. While wage growth remains low and the US Fed maintains current settings, we should expect the RBA's accommodatory approach to continue.
In 1961, Australian women had 3.5 children on average but by 2018, this figure stood at just 1.7. Falling fertility creates a shift in demographics and the ratio of retirees to working-age people.
The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.
If the world’s largest economy adopted a true MMT framework, the investment implications would be enormous. Economic growth would be materially greater but inflation and interest rates would also be much higher.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?
Any policy decision needs to recognise who is affected by a change. It pays to check the data on who pays taxes, who owns assets and who earns the income to ensure an equitable and efficient outcome.
With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.
It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.
There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.