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Wednesday, 4 August 2021
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The record run in house prices looks unsustainable but the outlook for Australian banks is for improving credit growth and earnings. For house prices to rise, the supply of credit must match demand from borrowers.
Blink and it happened. If announcements in this sector were made by a producer of iron ore, gas, copper or some new tech, the news would have been splashed across the front pages. Have we witnessed a major change?
Part 2. All new apartment buildings have defects, and developers and builders will not volunteer to spend time and money on fixes unless someone fights them. There's no 'defect buster' to call.
In response to reader requests, we have combined the two articles on '10 unspoken risks buying off-the-plan' into one PDF report to share with friends and family. Apartment living can be great but watch for traps.
All new apartment buildings have defects, and inexperienced owners assume someone else will fix them. But developers and builders will not volunteer to spend time and money unless someone fights them. Part 1
The gap between property yields and bond yields is known as the ‘risk premium’, the excess yield from investment in commercial property. The high yield spread signals limited downside to commercial property values.
Residential property attracts little interest from institutional investors and the listed market. Here are three reasons why retail investors have an advantage over well-resourced institutional investors.
Only six months ago, the Reserve Bank was modelling the impact on banks if house prices fell 40%. It was called 'extreme by plausible'. Most economists expected a fall of at least 10%, yet here we are with record prices.
Employees value WFH flexibility but they also enjoy and benefit from the office environment. Businesses will need to adapt but tenants say office work remains essential for productivity, culture, risk and driving innovation.
As people stayed home during the pandemic, a bearish view swept over most property sectors, but many have thrived and prices have recovered rapidly. The best opportunities are in long leases with quality tenants.
The concept of 'activity-based working', where several people occupy one seat on a particular day, is gone. Businesses will need more space for the same number of people as an offset to the decline in demand.
Many listed property stocks were hard hit by COVID, especially in retail, but foot traffic outside Victoria has held up relatively well. Some sectors are now good value for the recovery and less working from home.
What happens when a superannuation expert sets up his own retirement portfolio using decades of knowledge? He finds he can afford much more investment risk in his portfolio than conventional thinking suggests.
There is a small universe of companies on the ASX which are reliable dividend payers over five years, are fairly valued and are classified as ‘negligible’ or ‘low’ on both ESG risk and carbon risk.
The Government has taken the next step towards encouraging retirees to live off their capital, and from 1 July 2022 will require super funds - even SMSFs - to address retirement income and protect longevity risk.
The Big Four banks look similar but they are at fundamentally different stages as they move to simpler business models. Amid challenges from operating systems, loan growth and neobank threats, one factor stands tall.
They are six of the greatest businesses ever and should form part of the global portfolios of all investors. The market sees risk in inflation and valuations but the companies are positioned for outstanding growth.
The first of five articles on modern retirement income products that aim for an increasing pension that lasts for life and on average should not decline in real terms. They are not silver bullets but worth a look.