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Friday, 29 October 2021
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As Sydney and Melbourne emerge from lockdown, there are some reopening trades in the Australian credit market which 'sophisticated' investors should consider as part of their fixed income portfolios.
High-yield bonds carry more risk than investment grade but they offer higher income returns. An allocation to high-yield bonds in a portfolio - alongside equities and other bonds – is worth considering.
It used to be Down, Down for prices but the new status quo is Down Down for emissions. Until now, the realm of ESG has been mainly fund managers as 'responsible investors', but companies are now pushing credentials.
There are plenty of voices on both sides of the inflation argument, but the ultimate impact of COVID should be deflationary. Australia is one of the last places to expect worrying signs of inflation rising.
Financial repression is suddenly part of our lexicon, but what is it and how can a fixed income fund take advantage of it? And why it is better to manage smaller amounts than multi-billion portfolios.
There's an assumption that bond yields and share prices have a predictable relationship. The positive correlation means that when yields rise due to a strong economy, so should stocks. That's not what happens.
The collapse of Virgin Australia not only hit shareholders, but their bond investors received between 9 and 13 cents in the $1. A widely-diversified portfolio can tolerate losses better than a concentrated one.
We are undergoing a multi-year transition where high near-term economic growth drives rising real rates and higher but stable inflation. It bodes well for risky assets but with volatility and changing correlations.
Heavy consumer spending, rising commodity prices and government deficits point to rising inflation. Given the risk in long-term fixed rate exposure, where else can bond exposure help generate income?
Equity valuations are lofty, but long bond rates have now returned to levels before the pandemic crisis. In a balanced portfolio, long bonds now provide more opportunity to cushion the volatility of equities.
Lower bond yields have been used to justify higher share market valuations for much of the last decade. Now bond rates are rising and there is an inflation threat, what determines whether equities will be hit?
Bonds have been strong performers over many decades and always play a role in defensively-positioned portfolios. There are some basic principles investors should understand such as the types of yield.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?
Any policy decision needs to recognise who is affected by a change. It pays to check the data on who pays taxes, who owns assets and who earns the income to ensure an equitable and efficient outcome.
With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.
It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.
There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.