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Sunday, 24 October 2021
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Despite cutbacks in public service staff, we are spending over a billion dollars a year with five consulting firms. There is little public scrutiny on the value for money. How do consultants decide what to charge?
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There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.
Many financial advisers have left the industry because it costs more to produce advice than is charged as an up-front fee. Advisers are valued by those who use them while the unadvised don’t see the need to pay.
Life expectancy numbers are often interpreted as the likely maximum age of a person but that is incorrect. Here are three reasons why the odds are in favor of people outliving life expectancy estimates.
Investors ask whether global supply chains were stretched too far and too complex, and following COVID, is globalisation dead? New research suggests the impact on investment returns will not be as great as feared.
'Sophisticated' investors can be offered securities without the usual disclosure requirements given to everyday investors, but far more people now qualify than was ever intended. Many are far from sophisticated.
Most active fund managers are the beneficiaries of a confluence of favourable events. As future strong returns look challenging, passive is rising and new investors do their own thing, a golden age may be closing.
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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 430 with weekend update 6
The current standoff between the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, who plans to keep the cash rate at 0.1% until 2024, and the money market, which sees the bill rate above 1.5% by then, is a rare event. Only one will be right, and borrowers better hope it's Lowe.Read More.
Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.
Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.
At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.
Investors with a consistent investment approach which avoids chasing performance should reap rewards over time. A recent US study reveals a persistent gap between reported returns and what investors actually receive.
The world is experiencing declining investment in fossil fuels with increased dependency on intermittent sources such as solar and wind. It creates investment opportunities for those who follow global megatrends.
Superannuation funds receive franking credit refunds simply because their marginal tax rates are low, and no other reason. This point is often lost in the franking credit debate, but is low or tax-free super fair?
The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.
The pandemic has shown that the emerging market complex is more mature, with central bank discipline, strong demand for commodities and a positive outlook for currencies. Diversification into EM is worth a look.
There are many reasons why the market places too much emphasis on the short term, but taking a long view on growth, inflation, markets and sectors will lead to better policies and investments.
In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?
While REITs and some value stocks are considered 'inflation-sensitive' assets, the data provide little support that they are good inflation hedges, and energy stocks and commodities are too volatile. So what works?
They are six of the greatest businesses ever and should form part of the global portfolios of all investors. The market sees risk in inflation and valuations but the companies are positioned for outstanding growth.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.
Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.
The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
There are 75 brands owned by LVMH which operate as largely independent businesses, keeping them agile and entrepreneurial. The company’s response to the Covid pandemic was a great validation of this strength.
The Design and Distribution Obligations (DDO) come into effect in two weeks. They will change the way banks promote products, force some small funds to close to new members and push issues into the listed space.
Do what you want with your estate but there can be challenges in a court. Older people are vulnerable and they can tell people what they want to hear, but carers can also be successful over family beneficiaries.
The Australian Taxation Office has issued a directive about the top five errors in SMSF annual returns. Although many leave these to an administrator, it's worth knowing what's happening behind the scenes.
Seeking financial advice can be a daunting task and over 80% of Australians do not have a financial adviser. Here are the steps involved in understanding the advice process to encourage more people to jump in.
The widespread use of 'millionaire' must stop. Inflation means that the basket of goods and services that cost $1 million in 1960 now requires $15 million. Today, millionaires are not wealthy.
Let compounding do its work. It starts slowly. This is why many of those who start an investment programme (or fitness programme, dietary change, sport, or business) give up in the early stages.
Jacob Mitchell spent 14 years at Platinum before establishing Antipodes in 2015. He discusses trends he is following, his biggest lessons, LICs versus active ETFs and a stock he will hold for at least 10 years.
Is it more difficult to find stocks to short in a rising market? What impact has central bank dominance had over stock selection? How do you combine income and growth in a portfolio? Where are the opportunities?
Financial repression is suddenly part of our lexicon, but what is it and how can a fixed income fund take advantage of it? And why it is better to manage smaller amounts than multi-billion portfolios.
Harry Markowitz is the 1990 Nobel Laureate and Pensions & Investments Magazine's 'Man of the Century'. For his 94th birthday, he explains the magic moment of his Modern Portfolio Theory and Efficient Frontier work.
Focus on what you're good at. If you have no insights on macro themes or market trends but can spot a great company, that should be your emphasis, while carefully watching entry and exit prices.
Loans to corporates were the traditional domain of banks, but as investors look for income alternatives to term deposits, funds have combined hundreds of loans into a single structure to create a diversified investment.
There is danger in labelling anything a 'bubble', other than if it's a film of soap enclosing air. One person's asset bubble is another's growth story. When Bitcoin went from US$1 in 2011 to US$1,000 in 2017, that was clearly a bubble. It was nearly US$20,000 within a year, another bubble, and peaked over US$60,000 in early 2021. What about Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon and even Aussie house prices?
Cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort caused by holding two conflicting beliefs or values. We might rush into buying a house although we believe prices will fall but the fear of missing out is even worse. We don't like the pain inflicted by gambling but we invest in casinos. We believe sugar is detrimental to health but we work for a soft drink maker. A short-term share trade makes a loss and becomes a long-term investment. How about budget restraint amid massive fiscal spending?
All in one week. All on one subject. All buying into the same problem. Let's do a roll call of abbreviations and acronyms. IMF, OECD, CFR, RBA, APRA, ANZ, CBA. What are they all fussing about? Suddenly, they've realised rapidly-rising house prices might cause financial instability, generational inequity, mortgage stress and loan defaults. And did you know a housing inquiry is underway?
Two conversations last week with people at opposite ends of their financial journeys confirmed that a vital part of the investment decision is often overlooked. Where should the assets be held? Placing money in a personal account, joint names, company, super fund or SMSF, family trust, spouse or child can have vastly different consequences for tax, capital gains, estate planning, social security and access.
If you were on the board of a major bank and asked to write a wishlist of the things the government or central bank could fix to help your business, almost everything you could dream up has been delivered. For many years, I was Head of Balance Sheet Management at a large bank and we thought we were responsible for managing our own risks.
Wet streets cause rain. The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is a name created by writer Michael Crichton after he realised that everything he read or heard in the media was wrong when he had direct personal knowledge or expertise on the subject. He surmised that everything else is probably wrong as well, and financial markets are no exception.
COVID was a paradigm shift for thematic ETFs, satisfying investor sentiment toward disruptive trends and sustainable investing while covering almost any theme investors desire. Where do they sit in a portfolio?
Our next article on modern retirement income products looks at Magellan's FuturePay. It aims to provide predictable income without having to sell down capital, but at its heart, it's an equity fund with added support.
There is a small universe of companies on the ASX which are reliable dividend payers over five years, are fairly valued and are classified as ‘negligible’ or ‘low’ on both ESG risk and carbon risk.
There are few opportunities to buy tech heavyweights at attractive prices. In Morningstar’s view, four global leaders are trading at decent discounts to their fair values, indicating potential for upside.
Chris has many years of experience in building successful wealth management practices.
Noel Whittaker is one of the world's foremost authorities on personal finance.
Phil Ruthven is the founder and director of IBISWorld, Australia's best-known business information, forecasting and strategic services corporation
Paul John Keating is a former Australian politician who served as the 24th Prime Minister of Australia, in office from 1991 to 1996 as leader of the Labor Party.
launches High Conviction Domestic Equities Fund for wholesale investors.
to launch crypto-focused equities ETF.
launches Global Listed Infrastructure Fund.
Last year's retiree checklist of services available was one of our most popular articles. There are some additions for 2021, and while it can take effort to set them up, they can pay off over the long term.
Buying off-the-plan introduces uncertainties on completion and quality, and owners endure the delights, delays and dilemmas of buying a promise ... and a dream. Follow the blog to see if it's worth the journey.
SMSFs hold some of the most bizarre assets imaginable, challenging auditors required to value them and verify ownership. New rules and compliance obligations for trustees are fast approaching.
Warren Buffett explained why he believes most investors should not pick stocks but simply own an S&P 500 index fund. "There's a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry."