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8 August 2025
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The Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) came into 2025 with a base case of improving economic growth and decelerating inflation that was supportive for risk assets, while noting that uncertainty around tariffs greatly widened the dispersion of potential outcomes. Now that President Donald Trump is back in office, his policies have indeed been as disruptive as we could have imagined, and trade policy more disruptive than almost anyone expected. We believe that the announcements on April 2 are an opening stance that invites negotiation from trading partners, and that the final tariff outcome will be less costly than the worst estimates. While it is likely that, whatever the final outcome, some lasting damage has been done, we expect U.S. business and markets to regain their animal spirits once the worst of the disruption from tariffs and government spending cuts dissipates in favor of tax-cut extensions and deregulation. That said, President Trump’s approach not only to trade but to longstanding security alliances has already prompted pro-growth policy action in other regions, especially Europe. That growth catalyst has led us to upgrade our outlook for these economies and equity markets, both in absolute terms and relative to the U.S., which in turn results in an upgrade to our view on global equities. These views reinforce our theme of broadening performance in equity markets, but with a growing emphasis on broadening by region as well as by size, style and sector. At the same time, tail risks clearly remain elevated, leading the Committee to maintain a balanced view on asset allocation and a continued focus on assets that can act as ballast against either a growth slowdown or a return to rising inflation.
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Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.
The Labor government is talking up tax reform to lift Australia’s ailing economic growth. Before any changes are made, it’s important to know who pays tax, who owns assets, and how much people have in their super for retirement.
With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains.
There are many ways to invest in stocks, but some strategies are more effective than others. Here are nine tried and tested investment approaches - choosing one of these can improve your chances of reaching your financial goals.
China's steel production, equivalent to building one Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes, has driven Australia's economic growth. With China's slowdown, what does this mean for Australia's economy and investments?
Markets have weathered geopolitical turmoil, hitting near record highs. Investors face tough decisions on valuations, asset concentration, and strategic portfolio rebalancing for risk control and future returns.
This goes through the different options including shares, property and business ownership and declares a winner, as well as outlining the mindset needed to earn enough to never have to work again.
After a stellar 2025 to date for equities, warning signs - from speculative froth to stretched valuations - suggest the market’s calm may be masking deeper fragilities. Strategic rebalancing feels increasingly timely.
Everyone has a theory as to why housing in Australia is so expensive. There are a lot of different factors at play, from skewed migration patterns to banking trends and housing's status as a national obsession.
Each generation believes its economic challenges were uniquely tough - but what does the data say? A closer look reveals a more nuanced, complex story behind the generational hardship debate.
Blackberry clung on to the superiority of keyboards at the beginning of the touchscreen era and paid the ultimate price. Could the rise of agentic AI and a new generation of hardware do something similar to Apple?
The bond market is quietly regaining strength. As rate cuts loom and economic growth moderates, high-quality credit and global fixed income present renewed opportunities for investors seeking income and stability.
Companies trading at over 10x revenue now account for over 20% of the MSCI World index, levels not seen since the dotcom bubble. Can these shares create lasting value, or are they destined to unravel?