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13 September 2025

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Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q 2025

The Storm Before the Calm?

The Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) came into 2025 with a base case of improving economic growth and decelerating inflation that was supportive for risk assets, while noting that uncertainty around tariffs greatly widened the dispersion of potential outcomes. Now that President Donald Trump is back in office, his policies have indeed been as disruptive as we could have imagined, and trade policy more disruptive than almost anyone expected. We believe that the announcements on April 2 are an opening stance that invites negotiation from trading partners, and that the final tariff outcome will be less costly than the worst estimates. While it is likely that, whatever the final outcome, some lasting damage has been done, we expect U.S. business and markets to regain their animal spirits once the worst of the disruption from tariffs and government spending cuts dissipates in favor of tax-cut extensions and deregulation. That said, President Trump’s approach not only to trade but to longstanding security alliances has already prompted pro-growth policy action in other regions, especially Europe. That growth catalyst has led us to upgrade our outlook for these economies and equity markets, both in absolute terms and relative to the U.S., which in turn results in an upgrade to our view on global equities. These views reinforce our theme of broadening performance in equity markets, but with a growing emphasis on broadening by region as well as by size, style and sector. At the same time, tail risks clearly remain elevated, leading the Committee to maintain a balanced view on asset allocation and a continued focus on assets that can act as ballast against either a growth slowdown or a return to rising inflation.

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