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18 July 2026
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The Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) came into 2025 with a base case of improving economic growth and decelerating inflation that was supportive for risk assets, while noting that uncertainty around tariffs greatly widened the dispersion of potential outcomes. Now that President Donald Trump is back in office, his policies have indeed been as disruptive as we could have imagined, and trade policy more disruptive than almost anyone expected. We believe that the announcements on April 2 are an opening stance that invites negotiation from trading partners, and that the final tariff outcome will be less costly than the worst estimates. While it is likely that, whatever the final outcome, some lasting damage has been done, we expect U.S. business and markets to regain their animal spirits once the worst of the disruption from tariffs and government spending cuts dissipates in favor of tax-cut extensions and deregulation. That said, President Trump’s approach not only to trade but to longstanding security alliances has already prompted pro-growth policy action in other regions, especially Europe. That growth catalyst has led us to upgrade our outlook for these economies and equity markets, both in absolute terms and relative to the U.S., which in turn results in an upgrade to our view on global equities. These views reinforce our theme of broadening performance in equity markets, but with a growing emphasis on broadening by region as well as by size, style and sector. At the same time, tail risks clearly remain elevated, leading the Committee to maintain a balanced view on asset allocation and a continued focus on assets that can act as ballast against either a growth slowdown or a return to rising inflation.
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Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.
Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.
New CGT rules could tip the scales in the super vs non-super debate. For those facing the Division 296 tax, the case for withdrawing has gotten more complex. A "comparison rate" tool may help assess decisions.
The 30% minimum tax on capital gains sits at the heart of the budget's proposed reforms. Yet the mechanics reveal anomalies that introduce unexpected distortions that raise questions about its design.
The defining challenge of retirement isn't just about building wealth, it's about converting your lifetime savings into sustainable income. A holistic understanding of different strategies can improve long-term outcomes.
The downfall of the giant and three lessons for investors.
Treasury has confirmed the exemption many families were hoping for. But buried in the fine print are two conditions that could leave some wills on the wrong side of the exemption, despite years of careful planning.
Lithium's latest sell-off has punished ASX miners as prices remain hostage to shifting expectations. The key challenge is navigating a market prone to extreme volatility despite a strong case for the long-term demand outlook.
The implications of CGT reform are far and wide. As the 50% discount gives way to inflation indexation, turnover and return profiles may become critical drivers of after-tax performance. Some strategies face a far greater hit.
Our retirement system was built around assumptions that no longer hold. Lower homeownership, longer lifespans and changing expectations are exposing cracks that policymakers and super funds need to address.
Many people spend years planning financially for retirement but little time preparing for what comes next. Four months in, here are the surprising lessons I've learnt on finding purpose, social connection and healthy habits.
As tax reforms reshape investment incentives, investors should rethink what quality investing means in the uniquely concentrated Australian market, where traditional frameworks may not translate as effectively.
Why are tech giants pouring billions into datacentres when the economics look questionable? The most dangerous words in investing may be: "everyone else is doing it". Today's AI boom has striking parallels with the shale bust.