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Friday, 29 October 2021
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Bonds have been strong performers over many decades and always play a role in defensively-positioned portfolios. There are some basic principles investors should understand such as the types of yield.
No option removes the existential threats to the UK stirred by its EU departure. What started in 2016 as enough voters defying the odds has left the UK dangling politically and economically amid a pandemic.
Ultra low interest rates could be counterproductive for economic growth. Policymakers need to rely less on monetary stimulus and be mindful of the side effects they are creating, especially for retirees and savers.
Global central banks are delivering a sugar hit that markets are relying on, but it is unsustainable. Interest rates cannot continue to be cut into negative territory forever.
A close inspection of Reserve Bank Board minutes, the implications of US Fed moves, the way unemployment is measured and how monetary policy is set add up to a picture of further rate cuts.
With US interest rates on the rise and the prospect of Australian rates heading the same way, floating rate bonds have increased in popularity as they allow investors to benefit from increasing rates.
It took Wall Street and equity investors a long time to realise interest rates had gone through an inflection, and the era of the easiest money conditions in a lifetime is now over.
Australian banks are vulnerable to a collapse in the local housing market due to an overexposure to high-rise developments, interest-only loans and high loan-to-value ratios. The main uncertainty is the timing.
Australian bank liquidity regulations are continuing to tighten, adversely affecting access to cash and the ability of SMSFs to earn the same returns from bank deposits as individuals.
In a recent speech, US Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen signalled that 'unconventional' monetary policy actions by central banks are likely to be 'normal' for many years.
Following the recent cash rate cut, it seemed unusual for banks to then increase their term deposit rates, while only passing on a fraction of the cut to borrowers. What's behind this change in bank strategy?
The RBA follows a fairly standard formula when drafting its interest rate announcements each month and a keen observer might detect a change in view before an actual change in interest rates.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?
Any policy decision needs to recognise who is affected by a change. It pays to check the data on who pays taxes, who owns assets and who earns the income to ensure an equitable and efficient outcome.
With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.
It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.
There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.