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11 August 2022
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Billionaire fund manager standoff: Ray Dalio thinks investing is common sense and markets are simple, while Howard Marks says complex and convoluted 'second-level' thinking is needed for superior returns.
Central banks need data and sources as up-to-date as possible, yet Australia's Reserve Bank sees a new CPI only once a quarter. And the US Fed's rate committee waits two months for its next meeting.
A new standard argues the majority of Australians will never achieve the ASFA 'comfortable' level of retirement savings and it amounts to 'fearmongering' by vested interests. If comfortable is aspirational, so be it.
The lessons from 22 years in the market include the lower volatility of industrial shares, how a short book differs from a long, the best leading indicators of change, plus stocks to withstand tougher times.
Investors are hanging on every inflation announcement, both in Australia and overseas, as they will guide the direction of interest rates and economic growth. Let's look at both sides of the inflation argument.
The rapid rise in US Treasury yields and widening spreads on almost all other types of credit have pushed down bond prices, but it now means diversified bond funds can give investors returns not seen for many years.
Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.
Companies have been slow to update guidance and we have yet to see the impact of inflation expectations in earnings and outlooks. Companies need to insulate costs from inflation while enjoying an uptick in revenue.
Weaker share prices may have already discounted some bad news, but cost inflation is creating wide divergences inside and across sectors. Early results show some companies are strong enough to resist sector falls.
In 2002, the share price of the company that became Sydney Airport (SYD) hit 80 cents from the $2 IPO price. After 20 years of astute investment driving revenue increases, it sold to private hands for $8.75 in 2022.
There are significant differences in the sector weightings of an ethical fund versus an index, and while this has caused some short-term headwinds recently, the tailwinds are expected to blow over the long term.
Many new investors make common mistakes while learning about markets. Losses are inevitable. Newbies should read more and develop a long-term focus while avoiding big mistakes and not aiming to be brilliant.
Lenders use Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities to finance mortgages and RMBS are available to retail investors through fund structures. They come with many layers of protection beyond movements in house prices.