11 October 2026

Recently trending

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income It’s time for LICs to die Testamentary trusts survived the trust tax. The drafting battle has just begun.Is it time to bail on Australian stocks?The new capital gains tax trap for your portfolio

David Goldschmidt, Chartered Accountant: "I find this a really excellent newsletter. The best I get. Keep up the good work!"

Jonathan Hoyle, CEO, Stanford Brown: "A fabulous publication. The only must-read weekly publication for the Australian wealth management industry."

Eleanor Dartnall, AFA Adviser of the Year, 2014: "Our clients love your newsletter. Your articles are avidly read by advisers and they learn a great deal."

Reader: "Great resource. Cuffelinks is STILL the one and only weekly newsletter I regularly read."

Noel Whittaker, author and financial adviser: "A fabulous weekly newsletter that is packed full of independent financial advice."

Rob Henshaw: "When I open my computer each day it's the first link I click - a really great read."

Professor Robert Deutsch: "This has got to be the best set of articles on economic and financial matters. Always something worthwhile reading in Firstlinks. Thankyou"

Reader: "It's excellent so please don't pollute the content with boring mainstream financial 'waffle' and adverts for stuff we don't want!"

Reader: "Carry on as you are - well done. The average investor/SMSF trustee needs all the help they can get."

Scott Pape, author of The Barefoot Investor: "I'm an avid reader of Cuffelinks. Thanks for the wonderful resource you have here, it really is first class."

Steve: "The best that comes into our world each week. This is the only one that is never, ever canned before fully being reviewed by yours truly."

Reader: "The BEST in the game because of diversity and not aligned to financial products. Stands above all the noise."

Reader: " Finding a truly independent and interesting read has been magical for me. Please keep it up and don't change!"

Reader: "Best innovation I have seen whilst an investor for 25 years. The writers are brilliant. A great publication which I look forward to."

Reader: "I subscribe to two newsletters. This is my first read of the week. Thank you. Excellent and please keep up the good work!"

Reader: "An island of professionalism in an ocean of shallow self-interest. Well done!"

Reader: "Congratulations on a great focussed news source. Australia has a dearth of good quality unbiased financial and wealth management news."

John Pearce, Chief Investment Officer, Unisuper: "Out of the (many many) investmentrelated emails I get, Cuffelinks is one that I always open."

Reader: "Keep it up - the independence is refreshing and is demonstrated by the variety of well credentialed commentators."

Reader: "Is one of very few places an investor can go and not have product rammed down their throat. Love your work!"

John Egan, Egan Associates: "My heartiest congratulations. Your panel of contributors is very impressive and keep your readers fully informed."

Reader: "Love it, just keep doing what you are doing. It is the right length too, any longer and it might become a bit overwhelming."

Don Stammer, leading Australian economist: "Congratulations to all associated. It deserves the good following it has."

Ian Kelly, CFP, BTACS Financial Services: "Probably the best source of commentary and information I have seen over the past 20 years."

Ian Silk, CEO, AustralianSuper: "It has become part of my required reading: quality thinking, and (mercifully) to the point."

Andrew Buchan, Partner, HLB Mann Judd: "I have told you a thousand times it's the best newsletter."

Reader: "I can quickly sort the items that I am interested in, then research them more fully. It is also a regular reminder that I need to do this."

Home / 541

A dozen highlights from a dozen years

Graham Hand
3 January 2024
4

As we move into 2024, the 12th year of publishing Firstlinks, we have gone back over 540 editions and about 1,000 pieces written by me to find some of our most popular and standout articles.

While we focus of investing, superannuation and products, and try not to second-guess the market on where it is likely to head in the coming year, we inevitably write about property regularly. While Australians held about $3.6 trillion in superannuation at the end of 2023, they are investing about $10.5 trillion in residential property. Whereas 20 to 30 years ago, houses cost about four times the average salary, new buyers are now paying double that, or about eight times their income. It has made buying a house (or other home) a massive social problem and the increase in inequality has created a two-system economy.

The numbers are startling in a period of rapidly-rising interest rates. The national Home Value Index (HVI) rose 8.1% in Australia in 2023 according to CoreLogic, but Sydney, Brisbane and Perth rose even more. While predictions are prone to bias and inaccuracy, it seems unlikely that prices can repeat similar rises in 2024 on the back of large increases in interest rates.

In any case, several selected articles focus on housing trends, including the role of homes in retirement and superannuation. We also draw out many of the unknown risks of buying off-the-plan, increasingly important as more people need to buy apartments rather than houses.

The 2019 'OK Boomer' article showed how much my generation had benefited from the times, and we also review comments by Markowitz and Marks.

So take a look down memory lane at some important pieces, as we head back into our usual format during January 2024.

(A reminder that all past editions remain forever on our website, and glancing through an article archive, or perhaps following a particular contributor, reveals a treasure of content to follow).

1. 2023 (Edition 503)

10 reasons owning your home beats super in retirement

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/10-reasons-owning-home-beats-super-retirement

Since the introduction of compulsory super, the industry has pushed its members to put as much as possible into super. It has been a disservice to anyone entering retirement who could have owned a home instead.

2. 2022 (Edition 478)

Homeowner retirees should not ‘run out of money’

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/homeowner-retirees-not-run-money

A retired couple with up to $419,000 in assets plus a family home can receive a full age pension of $40,000 a year (worth maybe $1 million) plus many other benefits. With home equity access, money should not run out.

3. 2021 (Editions 407 and 408)

Whoyagonnacall? 10 unspoken risks buying off-the-plan

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/whoyagonnacall-10-unspoken-risks-buying-off-plan

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/whoyagonnacall-unspoken-risks-buying-off-plan-2

All apartment buildings, new or old, have defects, and inexperienced owners assume someone else will fix them. But developers and builders will not volunteer to spend time and money unless someone fights them. Parts 1 and 2.

4. 2020 (Edition 365)

11 lessons from my lousy $50K profit on Afterpay

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/11-lessons-from-my-lousy-50k-profit-on-afterpay

Afterpay listed at $1 in 2016 and traded at over $100. How should an investor treat a small holding in a 100-bagger when each new level defies the experts? Should true believers let the profits run?

5. 2019 (Edition 332)

OK Boomer: fessing up that we’ve had it good

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/article/ok-boomer-fessing-up-that-we-ve-had-it-good

The pre-Boomer generations faced global wars and depressions, but Australians born after 1946 have enjoyed prosperity. Superannuation, education, strong markets and surging property prices locked in gains.

6. 2018 (Edition 248)

$1 million is never worth less than $500,000

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/1million-never-less-than-500000-assets

Of course more is more. It's become common to claim there is no incentive to save more than $500,000 because of the loss of age pensions and possibly franking credits. But these arguments overlook the way super is supposed to operate.

7. 2017 (Edition 187)

Howard Marks on expert opinions as a coin toss

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/howard-marks-forecasting-coin-toss

Seven years after we first published this article, it feels as relevant as ever as market experts try to predict the next Fed rate move. Nearly all were wrong at the start of 2023, yet optimism led to a strong conclusion to the year. The memo from Howard Marks titled 'Expert Opinion' explained how forecasting is more art than science, and too much weight is given to expert opinions which are little more than a 50-50 guess.

8. 2016 (Edition 150)

Culture shock: 'Naked Among Cannibals' revisited

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/culture-shock-naked-among-cannibals-revisited

In my study of the way Australian banks operate, the cultural shortcomings have been obscured by the more prominent scandals in wealth management. Without a legal fiduciary obligation to customers, are banks fulfilling the social role expected of them?

9. 2015 (Edition 117)

What real estate agents don't tell you

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/real-estate-agents-dont-tell

The costs of owning an apartment for short term rental consume most of the income, leaving uninformed investors blind to actual returns until the statements roll in. The practice of marketing gross yields is misleading.

10. 2014 (Edition 65)

Harry Markowitz on investing until 100

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/harry-markowitz-investing-100

At age 87 in 2014, Nobel Prize winner and investment legend Harry Markowitz was far from retirement, dividing his time between teaching, consulting and writing. He sat down with me to share his wisdom.

11. 2013 (Editions 1, 2 and 3 by the Hon Paul Keating)

We're living longer and so should our superannuation

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/living-longer-and-superannuation

Where did SMSFs come from, and where are they going?

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/where-did-smsfs-come-from-and-where-are-they-going

Dividend imputation and superannuation are worth fighting for

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/dividend-imputation-and-superannuation-are-worth-fighting-for

12. And a bonus from 2020 (Edition 359)

The most amazing investment lesson of all

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/the-most-amazing-investing-lesson-of-all

If you had to choose one valuable concept to explain to a young person setting out on an investment journey, it should be compounding and the steady accumulation of wealth.

investing

3 January 2024
4

4 Comments

Chris
January 04, 2024

Appreciate the close look at off-the-plan as we know more people will be forced into this choice, but developers here often have poor reputations. Cannot see how enough will be built of the quality needed to meet demand.

Jackson
January 04, 2024

So many of the leading investors such as Buffett and Marks tell us to ignore predictions, and yet that's what most market experts spend their efforts on. Do they not feel they are wasting half their time?

Tony
January 05, 2024

I believe that Buffett and co are saying to ignore short term share price predictions as they fluctuate irrationally. Buffet's message is to study individual companies as businesses and "predict" the long term profit trend. When he finds a quality business selling for a bargain price, then "buy and hold forever."

Yes, I think some people are wasting more than half their time.

In Frost
January 07, 2024

The main reason we have a housing affordability crisis is that in the main, people buying houses are buying a house for their family and an investment. Up until 30 years ago, people bought their house as a safe Haven to bring up their families and provide their domestic stability. Subsequently, the size of the house, the style of the house, and it's finishes with substantially upgraded, so that part of the housing price was for the domestic stability, and part of the house price was future tax advantaged profit. The median size of houses more than doubled over that period, and that is the reason for the large mortgages. If homebuyers accepted, that a large proportion of their mortgage is future investment, The "housing" Component of the purchase would be seen in the correct light. Ian

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

David Knox
2 September 2026

It’s time for LICs to die

A high-profile dividend cut and a prominent fund manager’s apology have reignited a long-running debate. If investors can access similar exposures more cheaply and efficiently elsewhere, what exactly is keeping LICs alive?

David Tuckwell
30 September 2026

Testamentary trusts survived the trust tax. The drafting battle has just begun.

The fight over testamentary trusts looked settled. Then the draft legislation arrived. Hidden in a technical detail is a question that could force many families to rethink wills they thought were already future-proof.

Rachael Rofe
16 September 2026

Is it time to bail on Australian stocks?

For generations, Australian investors have backed banks, miners and dividends. But has that loyalty come at a cost? A look at the numbers raises an uncomfortable question about where future returns will come from.

Marcus Padley
9 September 2026

The new capital gains tax trap for your portfolio

Investors have long accepted one portfolio rule without much question. A major tax shift could change that calculation entirely, forcing difficult trade-offs between risk, discipline and an overlooked cost lurking beneath.

Shani Jayamanne
16 September 2026

How the typical Australian Family could save $844,350 in taxes

The value of a testamentary trust is not determined by wealth alone. Depending on circumstances, it can reduce the tax burden on inherited income, create efficiencies and help build intergenerational wealth.

Abbey John
23 September 2026

Latest Updates

Fixed interest

Higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds

Bond markets are adjusting to a new reality, but not in the ways investors expect. With markets repricing and capital competing for attention, investors may need to rethink where resilience and opportunity lie.

Eric Souders
7 October 2026

Economy

Are we in a recession?

What if the warning signs are already everywhere? From supermarket aisles to company failures, investors are being bombarded with recession signals. But most face a different risk that can be just as dangerous for portfolios.

Shani Jayamanne
7 October 2026
5

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs - Division 296 actuarial certificates

The tax bill might be yours, but the event that caused it may not be. A key Division 296 calculation can sometimes attribute earnings in ways that many SMSF trustees won't instinctively expect or fully appreciate.

Meg Heffron
7 October 2026
6

Property

The first impact of negative gearing reform is not the tax bill

Negative gearing changes formally begin in 2027, but the first consequences may already be here. A subtle shift is quietly influencing who can borrow, how much they can access and which property strategies still stack up.

Jade Xie
7 October 2026
3

Economy

The oil market is running out of easy answers

The biggest threat to markets may not be what investors are watching. The numbers have stopped adding up and supply is harder to measure, with forecasts becoming simple guesses. A more fragile reality is being masked.

Damien Klassen
7 October 2026
1

Investment strategies

The state of investor knowledge in Australia

Australians are investing more than ever, yet a surprising divide is emerging between those building wealth effectively and those making costly mistakes. Surprisingly, the gap has little to do with income, age or starting capital.

Alex Zaika
7 October 2026
2

Taxation

Complexity and capital gains

A case study shows that the ‘30% minimum CGT’ is a poorly conceived tax that adds significant complexity to an already over-complex system. A less complicated model would create a much fairer progressive tax scale.

Jim Bonham
7 October 2026
20

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.