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8 October 2025
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Market predictions for 2024 fall into two categories: extrapolating last year’s returns forward or forecasting returns to mean revert. Investors are best served by ignoring forecasts and focusing more on what really matters.
As we start 2024, the 12th year of publishing Firstlinks, we have gone back over 540 editions and about 1,000 articles by me to find some of our most popular and standout articles. Enjoy a look back!
Go your own way with your investing, who said these 20 famous quotations, and a brief health update.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.