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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 541

  • 4 January 2024
  • 13

Market predictions for 2024 fall into two categories: extrapolating last year’s returns forward or forecasting returns to mean revert. Investors are best served by ignoring forecasts and focusing more on what really matters.

A dozen highlights from a dozen years

As we start 2024, the 12th year of publishing Firstlinks, we have gone back over 540 editions and about 1,000 articles by me to find some of our most popular and standout articles. Enjoy a look back!

Go your own way, who said this and a health update

Go your own way with your investing, who said these 20 famous quotations, and a brief health update.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

The missing 30%: how LIC returns are understated, and why it matters

The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.

Little‑known government scheme can help retirees tap into $3 trillion of housing wealth

The Home Equity Access Scheme in Australia allows older homeowners to tap into their home equity for retirement income, yet remains underused due to lack of awareness and its perceived complexity.

Origins of the mislabeled capital gains tax ‘discount’

Debate over the CGT discount is intensifying amid concerns about intergenerational equity and housing affordability. This analysis shows that the 'discount' does not necessarily favor property investors.

Div 296 may mean your estate pays tax on assets your beneficiaries never receive

The new super tax, applying from 1 July, introduces more than just a higher rate on large balances. It brings into focus a misalignment between where wealth sits and where the tax on that wealth ultimately falls.

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