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Roger Montgomery

Why it's a frothy market but not a bubble

There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.

Buffett and his warning about 'virtually certain' earnings

While many investors are happy to invest in any online companies, Warren Buffett focusses more on the quality of future growth, buying companies whose earnings are 'virtually certain' in 10 or 20 years from now.

The future is always clearest once it is in the past

It's one of those times when a case can be made that the market is expensive on some measures, but reasonable on others. Better to do what the great companies do: instead of guessing the future, they create it.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

What will stop the market returning to its highs?

Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.

Coronavirus and a roadmap for infected investing

As much as value investors with spare cash want to jump on undervalued companies, it's probably not the time to buy the dip in the market just yet as the US braces for coronavirus's full impact.

Latest Updates

Superannuation

In fact, most people have no super when they die

Contrary to the popular belief supported by the 'fact base' of the Retirement Income Review, four in every five Australians aged 60 and over have no super in the period up to four years before their death.

Investment strategies

The risk-return tradeoff: What’s the right asset mix for a 5% return?

Conservative investors are forced to choose between protecting capital and accepting lower income while drawing down capital to maintain living standards or taking additional risk. How can you strike a balance?

Investment strategies

Mind the bond/equity rebalancing gap

The 12 months ending 31 March 2021 saw the largest positive divergence in returns between global equities and bonds in nearly 50 years. To retain a target balance, investors need to sell equities and buy bonds.

Investment strategies

Do bonds still offer a buffer to equity volatility?

Most Australians place their superannuation into a balanced fund, making the relationship between bonds and equities a vital part of performance. Does the traditional correlation between shares and bonds still hold? 

Strategy

Five trends shaping investments in China: 2021 and beyond

Australia has its tensions with China but with a strong base and a competitive, well-educated workforce, China’s manufacturing champions will advance its technology prowess and gain global market share.

Investment strategies

The fascinating bank hybrid journey of the last year

Bank hybrids produced excellent returns in the last year and the biggest lesson from March 2020 is that many investors don’t understand the structures, and in a crisis, they panic first and think later.

Shares

Eight quick lessons on the intricacies of selling shares

When we think about investing, we think about buying. The intricacies of the selling decisions are frequently overlooked, and poor selling is correlated to a lack of conviction. Selling is as important as buying.

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