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Roger Montgomery

Why the ASX 200 has gone nowhere in 16 years

The ASX 200 is around the same price that it was 16 years ago. The poor long-term performance can be largely blamed on our taxation system, which encourages companies to pay out most of their earnings as dividends.

Crisis, contagion or QE? The bigger picture

The current bank turmoil should not be a GFC-type event, although the risk of tightening credit conditions is real. Volatile markets are an opportunity to buy strong, growing companies trading at attractive valuations.

What the private credit boom means for investors

The big 4 banks have pulled back from lending to SMEs and private credit funds have stepped in to fill the breach. Here's what investors need to know about the benefits and risks of including these funds in their portfolios.

Collateral damage follows the end of profitless prosperity

It was a joy ride while it lasted but the free money era could not last. The consequences of the misallocation of capital into poor companies is now playing out and shareholders face billions of dollars in losses.

Will 2022 be the year for quality companies?

It is easy to feel like an investing genius over the last 10 years, with most asset classes making wonderful gains. But if there's a setback, companies like Reece, ARB, Cochlear, REA Group and CSL will recover best.

Inflation remains transitory due to strong long-term trends

There is momentum to stop calling inflation 'transitory' but this overlooks deep-seated trends. A longer-term view will see companies like ARB, Reece, Macquarie Telecom and CSL more valuable in a decade.

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Investment strategies

Two proven ways to make big money in markets

Many ASX success stories – like JB Hi-Fi, Lovisa, and AUB – have followed one of two strategies: rolling out single store formats nationwide or consolidating fragmented industries. Here are the secrets behind these business models.

Investment strategies

The bank is still a terrible place to put your money

With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.

Little to fear from APRA's hybrids review

APRA's objections to hybrids are misplaced. If the regulator wants more safety in our banking system, it will come at the expense of effectiveness, and that's why wholesale changes to the hybrid market are unlikely.

Investment strategies

Rates higher = shares lower… is it that simple?

Typically, higher interest rates are associated with lower share market valuations, but not always and the relationship hasn’t been that strong over the long term. Company fundamentals will matter more over the next few years.

Investment strategies

Diversification is not a free lunch

Harry Markowitz said that “diversification is the only free lunch in investing” as holding a broader range of assets can result in better returns without assuming more risk. This has become accepted wisdom - but it isn't true.

Economy

Why Asia remains one of the world's best growth stories

China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of many Asian economies’ strong growth momentum in the past year. But heading into 2024, Asia's growth story should reignite.

Podcast: Property picks, PE update, and Warnes on Michelle Bullock

Charter Hall's Steven Bennett talks through commercial property's challenges and opportunities, Schroders' Rainer Ender on private equity's bright spots, and Peter Warnes on how RBA hawkishness will impact rates and the economy.

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