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Wednesday, 20 October 2021
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Throughout time, transformative technology has changed the course of human history, but it is easy to be lulled into believing new technology will also transform investment returns. Where's the tipping point?
It's complicated. Rising bond yields reflect optimism about economic growth and improving business conditions. But as the recovery matures, increases in bond rates prove counter-productive, kerbing economic growth.
There are many reasons why 2021 has the potential to be a great year for equities. What are the themes and opportunities most likely to deliver, and how much is inflation a threat?
There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.
While many investors are happy to invest in any online companies, Warren Buffett focusses more on the quality of future growth, buying companies whose earnings are 'virtually certain' in 10 or 20 years from now.
It's one of those times when a case can be made that the market is expensive on some measures, but reasonable on others. Better to do what the great companies do: instead of guessing the future, they create it.
Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.
Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.
Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.
The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.
At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.