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Roger Montgomery

War can’t be good, can it?

War brings immense human suffering and geopolitical chaos, but historically, equity markets have shown a certain detachment and resilience amid conflict, leading to increased profitability despite initial panic.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Should Australia follow Trump's new brand of capitalism?

A new brand of capitalism may be emerging - one where governments take equity in private companies. Is it state overreach, or a smarter way to fund public goods without raising taxes?

Boom, bubble or alarm?

After a stellar 2025 to date for equities, warning signs - from speculative froth to stretched valuations - suggest the market’s calm may be masking deeper fragilities. Strategic rebalancing feels increasingly timely.

Is it time to pull the plug on EVs?

Electric vehicles have long been championed as the future of transportation. With production slowdowns, cautious consumers, and infrastructure challenges, EVs appear to be hitting a speed bump.

An alternative asset class for income-seeking retirees

A big market sell-off can force pensioners to 'sell cheap' in order to meet their miniumum withdrawal requirements. Investing in less volatile assets that also deliver regular income could provide an alternative.

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Investing

Markets without a margin for error

From US fiscal pressure to China’s shifting growth model and Australia’s structural constraints, markets are yet to reflect a less forgiving global investment landscape.

Investment strategies

The investment mistake killing your returns

Retail investors face an increasingly complex product environment, but simplicity may be the most overlooked advantage in building a portfolio you can actually live with.

The ticking clock on oil reserves

A sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing a rapid drawdown of global inventories. Without a resolution, the arithmetic points to a supply shock by early August and a sharp surge in the oil price.

Infrastructure

Managing the impact of the Middle East conflict on listed infrastructure

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in February 2026 marks an historic shock for oil and gas markets, with major implications for inflation, interest rates and ultimately for listed infrastructure companies.

Economy

Rent inflation and the missing policy

The government plans to remove negative gearing to help renters buy homes. For those who remain renters, the wrong levers are being pulled to try and increase rental unit supply.

Investment strategies

The Risk-Wealth Paradox: Why more money means you should take less risk

As wealth grows, so does the assumption that risk should too. But in reality, the opposite may be true: once you understand how the value of money changes over time, the case for taking less risk becomes far more compelling.

SMSF strategies

SMSF estate planning: Eight things to consider

As super balances grow, SMSFs are becoming central to retirement outcomes. Without proper planning for “Armageddon” scenarios, even well-structured funds can unravel when it matters most.

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