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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Insane prices as private equity quits market

Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.

It's unlikely Uber has a long-term future

Uber is the largest loss-making startup in history, and while investors will climb aboard the IPO and return money to early investors, the stockmarket will eventually realise there is no identifiable path to Uber profitability.

Welcome to the Great Australian Deleveraging

The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.

Watch for one rule that applies to all assets

Most investors think the relationship between interest rates and prices only applies to fixed rate bonds, but the rate impact on discounting future cash flows applies to all income-producing assets.

TV - the end of the world as we know it?

All aspects of media and broadcasting are changing, and in television, there are so many new ways to reach viewers that traditional players may be in an unavoidable death spiral.

Are there profits from the 5G revolution?

The coming of 5G will herald a communication and internet revolution, but the benefits to consumers and society will not automatically translate to huge profits for providers and suppliers. Who will win?

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Retirement

The retirement scorecard: how many of these questions can you answer?

From the maths of retirement, estimating spending and picking the right asset allocation to survive a poor decade, here are the questions every retiree – current or future – should be able to answer for themselves.

2026 is not 1999

The US market looks eerily similar to the dot-com era with soaring AI spending and tech giants dominating returns. But one difference separates today’s boom from the dot-com bubble and it could determine what happens next.

Planning

Taxing time for trusts

Trusts are facing a shake-up, but an overhaul may not be necessary. Families can explore restructuring strategies that preserve succession and the asset protection benefits that have made these structures valuable.

Economy

Why the US economy is stronger than you might think

War, inflation and higher rates were expected to derail America. But has the market got it wrong? Three forces are driving the economy beyond expectations, revealing implications for stock prices and portfolio positioning.

Gold

How much trust is in your portfolio?

Everyone talks about diversifying assets. Far fewer think about diversifying trust. As inflation, debt and market assumptions collide, the question is whether portfolios need greater protection from unexpected outcomes.

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 7 months in

Seven months into retirement, I'm still uncovering surprises. This month was spent reflecting on the slow pace of health change, the myth of neatly scheduled part-time work and the unexpected persistence of retirement guilt.

The new geography of technology leadership

The next chapter of technology may not belong to the companies or business models many expect. As the landscape shifts, some opportunities are emerging in places that remain surprisingly overlooked by global markets.

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