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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Perfect storm brewing for local retailers

A decline in activity related to household construction, combined with the arrival of foreign retail brands, does not bode well for Australian retailers. And an online behemoth may be an even bigger threat.

What should you do next?

Sticking to a value-driven investment strategy is difficult in a market fuelled by hope and buoyant expectations. At what point should investors forego the equity market rally to prepare for a possible correction?

Second-level thinking on Australian banks

Understanding the difference between first- and second-level thinking can make for more informed investment decisions, finding things others miss or bringing insights others don’t possess.

Investing in 2017 and beyond

Pointing the crystal ball to 2017, what's the outlook for residential property and which sectors of the sharemarket offer the most potential? There are new opportunities to buy some quality companies at reasonable prices.

So bond rates are not 'lower for longer'

Historically low bonds rates have boosted asset prices, but rates are likely to keep rising from this point. While this will cause pain over the next few years, it's a positive longer term as higher rates mean higher returns.

Market serves up some savage volatility

We are seeing rapid one-day movements in some large stocks of 10% to 20%, especially those that were 'priced for perfection'. What is causing this, and does it present a threat or an opportunity in a portfolio?

Latest Updates

Superannuation

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

Economy

Central banks need higher inflation targets

In a shift away from solely targeting low inflation, central banks are considering raising inflation targets to combat economic challenges, but face potential drawbacks and conflicts in policy implementation.

Exchange traded products

The missing 30%: how LIC returns are understated, and why it matters

The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.

Latest from Morningstar

Alpha isn’t dead. You’ve just been measuring it wrong

New research shows smarter portfolio construction—not new factors—is the real edge in the hunt for alpha. However, finding it requires a fundamentally different mindset.

Investment strategies

The diversification illusion: why 'balanced' portfolios may be exposed

Many 'diversified' portfolios are increasingly driven by the same narrow set of forces. As concentration builds beneath the surface, understanding how portfolios behave - not just how they’re constructed - is critical for investors.

Investment strategies

The case for staying the course in credit

Rising oil prices and inflation pushed Australian yields higher. Markets expect further tightening, but weaker growth may reverse rates. Locking income and maintaining duration is a sound strategy for widening credit spreads.

Investment strategies

One risk after another

Investors often focus on front-of-mind risks, reacting to each headline event without considering long-term impacts. Cass Sunstein and Timur Kuran define this as an "availability cascade," affecting financial decision-making.

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