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Wednesday, 20 October 2021
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It's pleasing to have been contributing to Cuffelinks since the start in 2013. Fundamentally sensible and technically useful articles again dominated in 2017, but five in particular stay in the memory due to their special insights.
Don't extrapolate success without anticipating new ideas and competition. When consolidation of media power, personal data, or capital is concentrated in a few companies, society repels and rejects.
NAB's latest announcement shows we are at a critical turning point with technology replacing jobs, and Australia lacks the political will to drive innovation and avoid declining living standards.
Argentina's economic history shows there's no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.
At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.
The consequences of renewable energy disruption will be strongly felt by the Australian sharemarket with the falling contribution from existing energy and resource companies.
Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.
Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.
Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.
The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.
At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.