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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Sweet spot helping bull market rampage

The strong market has challenged value investors who want to buy at lower prices, but there are signs 2020 will continue a 'sweet spot' of profit growth, low inflation and central bank liquidity support. 

A simple method to help mitigate sequencing risks

A shock to a portfolio at the wrong time can compromise a retirement plan where cash must be withdrawn each year. There are funds which attempt to trade some of the upside to reduce the downside.

Bulls, bonds and brain damage

Markets are overlooking the obvious risks as traders pass the parcel to the next buyer. Even central bankers believe: “There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine.”

Insane prices as private equity quits market

Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.

It's unlikely Uber has a long-term future

Uber is the largest loss-making startup in history, and while investors will climb aboard the IPO and return money to early investors, the stockmarket will eventually realise there is no identifiable path to Uber profitability.

Welcome to the Great Australian Deleveraging

The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.

Latest Updates

Superannuation

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

Economy

Central banks need higher inflation targets

In a shift away from solely targeting low inflation, central banks are considering raising inflation targets to combat economic challenges, but face potential drawbacks and conflicts in policy implementation.

Exchange traded products

The missing 30%: how LIC returns are understated, and why it matters

The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.

Latest from Morningstar

Alpha isn’t dead. You’ve just been measuring it wrong

New research shows smarter portfolio construction—not new factors—is the real edge in the hunt for alpha. However, finding it requires a fundamentally different mindset.

Investment strategies

The diversification illusion: why 'balanced' portfolios may be exposed

Many 'diversified' portfolios are increasingly driven by the same narrow set of forces. As concentration builds beneath the surface, understanding how portfolios behave - not just how they’re constructed - is critical for investors.

Investment strategies

The case for staying the course in credit

Rising oil prices and inflation pushed Australian yields higher. Markets expect further tightening, but weaker growth may reverse rates. Locking income and maintaining duration is a sound strategy for widening credit spreads.

Investment strategies

One risk after another

Investors often focus on front-of-mind risks, reacting to each headline event without considering long-term impacts. Cass Sunstein and Timur Kuran define this as an "availability cascade," affecting financial decision-making.

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