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Roger Montgomery

2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?

2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.

What to do about the growing chorus of market correction warnings?

Since the 1970s, whenever positive economic growth and disinflation have joined forces, they've produced good conditions for equities, particularly for companies with pricing power. It bodes well for markets going forward.

Small caps are compelling but not for the reasons you might think...

Your author prematurely advocated investing in small caps almost 12 months ago. Since then, the investment landscape has changed, and there are even more reasons to believe small caps are likely to outperform going forward.

Why the ASX 200 has gone nowhere in 16 years

The ASX 200 is around the same price that it was 16 years ago. The poor long-term performance can be largely blamed on our taxation system, which encourages companies to pay out most of their earnings as dividends.

Crisis, contagion or QE? The bigger picture

The current bank turmoil should not be a GFC-type event, although the risk of tightening credit conditions is real. Volatile markets are an opportunity to buy strong, growing companies trading at attractive valuations.

What the private credit boom means for investors

The big 4 banks have pulled back from lending to SMEs and private credit funds have stepped in to fill the breach. Here's what investors need to know about the benefits and risks of including these funds in their portfolios.

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Investing

Markets without a margin for error

From US fiscal pressure to China’s shifting growth model and Australia’s structural constraints, markets are yet to reflect a less forgiving global investment landscape.

Investment strategies

The investment mistake killing your returns

Retail investors face an increasingly complex product environment, but simplicity may be the most overlooked advantage in building a portfolio you can actually live with.

The ticking clock on oil reserves

A sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing a rapid drawdown of global inventories. Without a resolution, the arithmetic points to a supply shock by early August and a sharp surge in the oil price.

Infrastructure

Managing the impact of the Middle East conflict on listed infrastructure

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in February 2026 marks an historic shock for oil and gas markets, with major implications for inflation, interest rates and ultimately for listed infrastructure companies.

Economy

Rent inflation and the missing policy

The government plans to remove negative gearing to help renters buy homes. For those who remain renters, the wrong levers are being pulled to try and increase rental unit supply.

Investment strategies

The Risk-Wealth Paradox: Why more money means you should take less risk

As wealth grows, so does the assumption that risk should too. But in reality, the opposite may be true: once you understand how the value of money changes over time, the case for taking less risk becomes far more compelling.

SMSF strategies

SMSF estate planning: Eight things to consider

As super balances grow, SMSFs are becoming central to retirement outcomes. Without proper planning for “Armageddon” scenarios, even well-structured funds can unravel when it matters most.

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