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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Insane prices as private equity quits market

Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.

It's unlikely Uber has a long-term future

Uber is the largest loss-making startup in history, and while investors will climb aboard the IPO and return money to early investors, the stockmarket will eventually realise there is no identifiable path to Uber profitability.

Welcome to the Great Australian Deleveraging

The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.

Watch for one rule that applies to all assets

Most investors think the relationship between interest rates and prices only applies to fixed rate bonds, but the rate impact on discounting future cash flows applies to all income-producing assets.

TV - the end of the world as we know it?

All aspects of media and broadcasting are changing, and in television, there are so many new ways to reach viewers that traditional players may be in an unavoidable death spiral.

Are there profits from the 5G revolution?

The coming of 5G will herald a communication and internet revolution, but the benefits to consumers and society will not automatically translate to huge profits for providers and suppliers. Who will win?

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Investment strategies

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

Investment strategies

Citi’s Gofran Chowdhury: clients don’t think the worst is over

Citi's clients tap into their own views to find investments that suit their portfolios, often working across global boundaries. It's a search for solutions in a world with no risk-free returns.

Shares

Two thematics to watch in volatile times

COVID-19 is delivering winners and losers, and buying a well-positioned company while shorting one with worse prospects can provide returns while managing the downside of an overall market correction.

Investment strategies

Four ways to reduce the generation blame game

There's a popular view that generations are 'at war', but is it really the case that generations are more divided than ever before? If so, what's causing it? Why now? And how can we move forward?

Gold

Is gold a growth or defensive asset?

As uncertainty intensifies around geopolitics and markets, gold has rallied strongly in 2020. While most investors think of gold for price growth, does it deliver defensive features to a diversified portfolio?

Superannuation

Large super funds struggle to match index in Aussie equities

With the Retirement Income Review now in Treasury's hands, will the 'fact base' establish whether large super funds do better than the share index? The public evidence is not impressive.

Economy

The green lining of COVID-19: a time for change

With historic falls in greenhouse gas emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, we have a unique opportunity to construct a recovery that ensures a stronger economy while minimising carbon emissions.

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