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Roger Montgomery

Four fruitful themes show plenty of juice in the market

There are many reasons why 2021 has the potential to be a great year for equities. What are the themes and opportunities most likely to deliver, and how much is inflation a threat?

Why it's a frothy market but not a bubble

There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.

Buffett and his warning about 'virtually certain' earnings

  While many investors are happy to invest in any online companies, Warren Buffett focusses more on the quality of future growth, buying companies whose earnings are 'virtually certain' in 10 or 20 years from now.

The future is always clearest once it is in the past

It's one of those times when a case can be made that the market is expensive on some measures, but reasonable on others. Better to do what the great companies do: instead of guessing the future, they create it.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

What will stop the market returning to its highs?

Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.

Latest Updates

The ultimate superannuation EOFY checklist 2026

Here is a checklist of 28 important issues you should address before June 30 to ensure your SMSF or other super fund is in order and that you are making the most of the strategies available.

Retirement

Two months into retirement

A retirement researcher's take on retirement and her focus on each of her six resource buckets to stay engaged during the transition and beyond.

Superannuation

Markets have always delivered for super fund members. What if they don’t?

What happens if market resilience in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions ends? Potential decade-long market weakness shows the need for contingency planning.

Retirement

We tend to spend less in retirement …

Studies show that a drop in expenditure during retirement leads to a happier retirement. But when costs ramp up again later in life, it's a guaranteed income that makes spending more hurt less.

Shares

Can you value a share just using dividends?

A cow for her milk, a stock for her dividends. Investors are too quick to dismiss this valuation technique. 

Property

The 25-year property trust default is being questioned

The 33% CGT discount rate being floated isn’t random. It sits at the structural break-even between trust and company for the multi-property cohort. That’s driving the conversation we’re hearing now.

Investment strategies

Are active managers bringing a knife to a gunfight?

How passive investing has permanently changed market structure — and why sophisticated tools are now the price of survival.

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