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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Why it's a frothy market but not a bubble

There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.

Buffett and his warning about 'virtually certain' earnings

  While many investors are happy to invest in any online companies, Warren Buffett focusses more on the quality of future growth, buying companies whose earnings are 'virtually certain' in 10 or 20 years from now.

The future is always clearest once it is in the past

It's one of those times when a case can be made that the market is expensive on some measures, but reasonable on others. Better to do what the great companies do: instead of guessing the future, they create it.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

What will stop the market returning to its highs?

Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.

Coronavirus and a roadmap for infected investing

As much as value investors with spare cash want to jump on undervalued companies, it's probably not the time to buy the dip in the market just yet as the US braces for coronavirus's full impact.

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Economy

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

Retirement

Navigating the next stage of life in retirement

Retirement planning is more than just saving enough money. Long-term care needs, housing choices, and social networks are just as critical for a happy and enjoyable life.

Strategy

Showcasing your value in the age of AI shortcuts

Knowledge is becoming commoditized in the age of artificial intelligence but experience, taste, and judgement are still at a premium.

Planning

Financial advice as the pathway to economic security

Financial advice can lead to improved financial literacy, a healthier super balance and a higher standard of living in retirement. Is now the time to give yourself the gift of financial advice?

Economy

The overlooked driver of energy inflation

The impact of energy policy on inflation in Australia is often overlooked. Transitioning to renewable energy can lead to inflated costs that affect the entire economy and productivity growth.

Economy

A 2026 rotation story: Europe’s undervalued small caps

In 2026, Europe is poised for a 'Goldilocks' scenario with cooling inflation and lower rates, driven by fiscal stimulus. Small caps offer an attractive entry point before capital rotation.

Investment strategies

What we do when things go up (a lot)

Recent price spikes, particularly gold's surge, trigger behavioral responses like availability bias, storytelling, extrapolation, and FOMO, which create self-reinforcing feedback loops influencing investor sentiment and market trends.

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