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Roger Montgomery

Why it's a frothy market but not a bubble

There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.

Buffett and his warning about 'virtually certain' earnings

  While many investors are happy to invest in any online companies, Warren Buffett focusses more on the quality of future growth, buying companies whose earnings are 'virtually certain' in 10 or 20 years from now.

The future is always clearest once it is in the past

It's one of those times when a case can be made that the market is expensive on some measures, but reasonable on others. Better to do what the great companies do: instead of guessing the future, they create it.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

What will stop the market returning to its highs?

Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.

Coronavirus and a roadmap for infected investing

As much as value investors with spare cash want to jump on undervalued companies, it's probably not the time to buy the dip in the market just yet as the US braces for coronavirus's full impact.

Latest Updates

Property

The 5% deposit scheme is bad for homeowners and Australia

An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.

Investment strategies

Is defensive the new offensive?

Relatively boring, unglamorous, defensive stocks like Kroger and Allstate have quietly outperformed gilded tech giants, offering steady growth, visibility, and resilient returns in a market captivated by AI and flashier industries.

Shares

How the RBA scores on its inflation goal

The Reserve Bank continues to face criticism from all sides. A reminder of the RBA's mandate and a review of their track record in maintaining price stability since the early 1990s.

Investment strategies

Levered credit: A late cycle ingredient for drawdown pain

As credit spreads normalised through 2025, yield‑hungry investors have turned to leverage for high returns, uncomfortably echoing pre‑GFC behaviours. Investors need to be careful to understand the true risk‑return trade‑off.

Planning

The more things change… longevity just goes on increasing

Australia needs a major shift in longevity awareness, attitudes and behaviour if, as a community, we are to reap the benefits of increasing longevity. Adopting a national strategy is well overdue.

Property

The improving outlook of Australian commercial real estate

The sector is positioned to benefit from defensive and resilient income streams supported by embedded rental increase opportunities. 

Property

Seize hidden opportunities among 50+ home buyer schemes in Australia

There is a laundry list of government schemes to help Australian's struggling with housing affordability. Savvy buyers should take advantage to break into the property market.

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