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Roger Montgomery

Will 2022 be the year for quality companies?

It is easy to feel like an investing genius over the last 10 years, with most asset classes making wonderful gains. But if there's a setback, companies like Reece, ARB, Cochlear, REA Group and CSL will recover best.

Inflation remains transitory due to strong long-term trends

There is momentum to stop calling inflation 'transitory' but this overlooks deep-seated trends. A longer-term view will see companies like ARB, Reece, Macquarie Telecom and CSL more valuable in a decade.

Two strong themes and companies that will benefit

There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.

The tipping point for investing in decarbonisation

Throughout time, transformative technology has changed the course of human history, but it is easy to be lulled into believing new technology will also transform investment returns. Where's the tipping point?

How much will rising inflation hit company valuations?

It's complicated. Rising bond yields reflect optimism about economic growth and improving business conditions. But as the recovery matures, increases in bond rates prove counter-productive, kerbing economic growth.

Four fruitful themes show plenty of juice in the market

There are many reasons why 2021 has the potential to be a great year for equities. What are the themes and opportunities most likely to deliver, and how much is inflation a threat?

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Investment strategies

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Investment strategies

21 reasons we’re nearing the end of a secular bull market

Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.

Property

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

Investment strategies

Market entry – dip your toe or jump in all at once?

Lump sum investing usually wins, but it can hurt if markets fall. Using 50 years of Australian data, we reveal when staging your entry protects you, and when it drags on returns. 

Investment strategies

The US$21 trillion question: is AI an opportunity or excess?

It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.

Economy

US energy strategy holds lessons for Australia

The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.

Strategy

Venezuela’s democratic roots are deeper than Trump knows

Most people know Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela has oil. Few grasp the depth of suffering or the country’s democratic history - essential context as the US ousts Maduro and charts Venezuela’s future. 

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