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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

So bond rates are not 'lower for longer'

Historically low bonds rates have boosted asset prices, but rates are likely to keep rising from this point. While this will cause pain over the next few years, it's a positive longer term as higher rates mean higher returns.

Market serves up some savage volatility

We are seeing rapid one-day movements in some large stocks of 10% to 20%, especially those that were 'priced for perfection'. What is causing this, and does it present a threat or an opportunity in a portfolio?

Make alternatives mainstream and don’t be sold short

Disruption across many industries often makes it easier to pick the losers than the winners. Short-selling can play an important and legitimate role in an investment portfolio, although it continues to attract criticism.

How good a guide is guidance?

The market's fixation with whether companies are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of quarterly financial targets is inhibiting market efficiency. Investors would do better focussing on long-term prospects.

Are bonds failing us as a warning signal?

In previous cycles, bond yields provided a strong indication of the general health of the economy, but huge coordinated actions by central banks are changing that paradigm. Watch how you read the signals.

Don’t let Brexit rush you to the exit

The media screams the scary headlines at times like Brexit as the share market reacts to the uncertainty. Investors need to ignore the shouting and accept with equanimity that this is the cost of participation.

Latest Updates

Planning

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Treasury’s latest CGT reform draft delivers a win for testamentary trusts and deceased estates, exempting estate-derived gains from the 30% floor. However, questions on death and divorce rollovers remain unresolved.

Superannuation

How much super should you have?

Average super balances are one of the most misleading benchmarks. They ignore your goals, spending and future needs, creating a false sense of security. Here is how I calculate exactly where I need to be at every decade.

Retirement

Retiring from work is easy, retiring into life is harder

Most people spend decades planning how to retire. Far fewer plan for what comes next. The biggest retirement challenge isn't always financial, and it often catches even the most prepared retirees completely off guard.

Shares

Right asset class, wrong index: the trap in Australian small caps

Most Australian portfolios are concentrated in large caps, with relatively little exposure to smaller companies. But what if the biggest risk isn't the economy, interest rates or valuations? For many, the risk is hidden in plain sight.

Property

Are these assets the missing piece in Australian portfolios?

Many investors remain concentrated in shares, cash and property. Despite their popularity among institutional investors, real assets remain underrepresented in many SMSF portfolios. Could they be the missing piece?

Investment strategies

The biggest risk that buy-and-hold investors ignore

Investors spend decades learning how to stay invested, yet few have a plan for getting out. When a financial goal has a hard deadline, a worked example shows why a fixed derisking schedule should outrank buy-and-hold discipline.

Investment strategies

How passive investing is driving the decline of active fund alpha

Why have active managers struggled as passive investing has surged? Research suggests that flows into index funds and ETFs are creating structural headwinds, penalising the stock-picking strategies that once generated alpha.

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