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5 February 2026

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648

  •   5 February 2026
  • 21
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This is my last edition as Editor as I am leaving Firstlinks to become Commsec’s Equity Market Strategist.

Morningstar’s Director of Personal Finance, Mark LaMonica, will take over the role until a permanent replacement is found.

It’s been a privilege to work at Firstlinks. I came here three-and-a-half years ago to help Graham Hand. He wanted to focus on writing and hand over editing and the administrative responsibilities of the newsletter. A year into coming on board, Graham became ill and my role changed. And it changed more permanently following Graham's passing.

It was a trying period. Not only with Graham but taking on the newsletter which he founded. After all, it was his baby and his audience.

I hope I have at least transitioned Firstlinks from being the founder-led newsletter that it was to what it is today.

Firstlinks remains as relevant as ever. In a world dominated by short-term thinking and marketing spiels, the newsletter stands out for its long-term, thoughtful approach to investing. Long may it continue.

Thank you to the readers, sponsors, and Morningstar for all your support.

If you’d like to stay in touch, please connect with me through LinkedIn or X.

Best wishes.

****

In my article this week, the RBA rate rise dominates headlines, but Australia’s inflation problem runs deeper. I look at some of the key myths behind our affordability crisis, what the real drivers are, and three ways to tackle the problem.

On the subject on inflation, Ashley Owen also runs through 125 years of data to reveal the destructive impact of inflation on our wealth and how even if the CPI returns to the RBA's 2-3% target range, it won't solve the problem for investors.

James Gruber

Also in this week's edition...

Tony Dillon says the new draft legislation for Division 296 is a step forward, yet it still feels like a wealth tax. The bigger question: has a chance for simpler, fairer super reform been missed?

Jon Kalkman believes many Australians mistakenly think their super is like a bank account when it's legally a trust - meaning you don’t own the assets, the trustee does. He says proposed changes like Division 296 risk making you liable for tax on growth you don’t actually control.

Investors fixate on tech giants, but much of the world market’s 2025 gains came from other sectors. VanEck's Anna Wu thinks health care, gold miners, and nuclear energy may offer the next big investment opportunities.

When people think of infrastructure, they generally think of steady earnings and cashflows and, while true, it ignores something else they offer: dividends. In a world starved of yield, infrastructure's income prospects are attractive, according to Magellan.

Jeremy Grantham is a legend in the investment industry having correctly called out several bubbles including the 2000 tech wreck and the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he's targeting AI, believing that while it's the most impressive innovation in 100 years, the sector is in a bubble and a reality check is coming.

Lastly, in this week's whitepaper, Fidelity International examines the key themes that will shape markets in 2026.

Curated by James Gruber and Leisa Bell

A full PDF version of this week’s newsletter articles will be loaded into this editorial on our website by midday.

Latest updates

PDF version of Firstlinks Newsletter

Monthly Investment Podcast by UniSuper

ASX Listed Bond and Hybrid rate sheet from NAB/nabtrade

Listed Investment Company (LIC) Indicative NTA Report from Bell Potter

Plus updates and announcements on the Sponsor Noticeboard on our website

 

  •   5 February 2026
  • 21
  •      
  •   
21 Comments
Denis
February 05, 2026

Well done James. You have commendably continued on the excellent tradition of this newsletter. In my opinion a valuable contribution to investment market understanding and financial awareness generally. Best wishes for the future.

7
Linda P
February 05, 2026

Thanks for being the editor for the past 3 yrs. Your content has always been such an informative and enjoyable read

6
Benjamin B
February 05, 2026

James,

Thank you for your efforts, you'll be missed.

I wish you success in your future role.

3
Richard W
February 05, 2026

Thanks for your thoughtful writing on invariably interesting topics, James. All the best for your future role.

3
Bill Hackett
February 05, 2026

Thank you James for your high standard and quality of your work over the past 3+ years, and all the very best in your future endeavours at CommSec

2
Phil G
February 05, 2026

Congratulations on the new role James, been great to work with you. FirstLinks is one of the few publications I peruse every week, great to get the independent thinking. Often the comments are even better!

2
Geoff Stearn
February 05, 2026

Many thanks for your work and efforts at Firstlinks to retain the standard initiated by the late Graham Hand .
I wish you the best in your next endeavours , adventures etc . I hope they go well for you .
Geoff Stearn

1
Errol
February 05, 2026

Thanks for doing such a great job James and congrats on your new role. I’m sure Graham would be proud of your contribution to Firstlinks.

1
Paul B
February 05, 2026

We'll be sorry to see you go James - you've done a fantastic job. I really appreciate all the research and insights you put into your articles - I enjoyed reading them all. Wishing you all the best in your new endeavours.

1
John
February 05, 2026

Thanks for efforts within this medium James.
Have what I believe could be of interest for many readers as follows.
Full Self Driving Technologies
As Australia’s population ages, losing a driver’s licence often means losing everyday independence. These technologies could let older Australians enjoy the convenience and independence of their own car in their own garage, without having to drive. This offers privacy, freedom, and mobility that public transport simply cannot match.
FSD (Full Self Driving). For example, this is already available from Tesla. Someone I know (in his 80s) went from Noosa to Caloundra without touching the steering wheel. His wife said she would rather be a passenger in a car with FSD than him driving. Now if Waymo gets approved in Australia and the technology moves along at the incredible pace it already has then this could be feasible. Great for those aged people who are no longer allowed to drive as it gives you the convenience of your own car in your garage. Trouble is at present, FSD is very expensive.
It will rely of course on approval from the regulatory regime and the authorities

Oliver
February 05, 2026

Yes, you did a great job, James. I liked reading your thoughtful comments and acting on some of your suggestions.
As I also read Mark's comments on Morningstar and assuming that Mark also continues in that role, I am now concerned that there is only one opinion on both Morningstar and Firstlinks - by definition. Can't there be another interim manager?

Mark LaMonica
February 05, 2026

Hi Oliver – unfortunately we have a small team and have no other option during the transition. We are actively hiring for the role and hope that the transition does not last too long. Anything I write for Firstlinks will be new material and I will try my best to meet the standards of the Firstlinks’ community. I am well aware of how hard it will be to follow in the footsteps of Graham and James.

4
Troy F
February 05, 2026

Mixed feelings, James.

Wish you all the best but selfishly don't want you to go.

Deborah Solomon
February 05, 2026

Oh James!
I’m both sad that you are leaving ‘Graham’s baby’ but very pleased (as would he be) for your advancement in a new role with CommSec.
Thank you for the solid dedication to the role of Firstlinks editor.

James Gruber
February 05, 2026

Hi Deborah,

Thank you.

From you, that means a lot.

James Gruber
February 05, 2026

Thank you to everyone for the kind comments - most appreciated.

Best wishes,
James

D'SILVA
February 05, 2026

Congratulations James. New chapter, new adventure.
I've enjoyed reading your articles and insights.
I'll reach out on LinkedIn to connect.
Best of luck on your new journey.

RodinOz
February 05, 2026

Best wishes James. Loved your articles on Lazy Portfolios.

Dan
February 05, 2026

All the best James.
You don't know what you got til it's gone - Firstlinks readers were very lucky.
Fantastic job.

HandyAndy
February 05, 2026

Thanks James. Have enjoyed reading your weekly insights ... appreciated your input in the commentary. Best wishes with the new role.

 

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