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Roger Montgomery

What NAB's announcement really means

NAB's latest announcement shows we are at a critical turning point with technology replacing jobs, and Australia lacks the political will to drive innovation and avoid declining living standards.

Fear of missing out trumping fear of loss

Argentina's economic history shows there's no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.

To zig or to zag?

At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.

The energy disruptions with forever impacts

The consequences of renewable energy disruption will be strongly felt by the Australian sharemarket with the falling contribution from existing energy and resource companies.

High or low price, future returns will be low

Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.

Seismic change and investing in barbells

The stock market is increasingly looking like a 'barbell' of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.

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Retirement

How inflation is quietly moving the goalposts on retirement

Inflation doesn’t just raise today’s bills - it quietly increases the amount needed to retire, while simultaneously making it harder to save. Three steps to take before June 30th to improve retirement outcomes.

Investment strategies

Three strategies for investing amid AI whiplash

AI fears have shifted from bubble talk to disruption anxiety, driving investors toward asset-heavy, 'AI-resistant' businesses while punishing many software and service firms. This environment may be ripe for stock pickers.

Investment strategies

Are private market assets the answer in an unstable world?

Private markets can offer diversification and return potential, but their opacity, scale and wide dispersion of outcomes make manager selection and due diligence critical for non‑institutional investors.

Property

Mispriced in plain sight: The case for Global REITs

Global REITs have fallen out of favour, trading at deep discounts after years of underperformance, despite resilient earnings and improving fundamentals.

Investment strategies

Survival is the only success

True financial success isn’t about how much you make, but whether you can sustain it — survival is the only win that matters.

Investment strategies

$42 billion too late

Why Australia's biggest energy bet may already be redundant while a less celebrated government program is exceeding expectations. 

Investment strategies

Do investors accept lower returns from assets that make them feel good?

Assets that deliver emotional satisfaction tend to offer lower financial returns, as investors accept an “emotional yield” in place of performance which shapes how investors approach ESG and unpopular assets.

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