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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Fear of missing out trumping fear of loss

Argentina's economic history shows there's no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.

To zig or to zag?

At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.

The energy disruptions with forever impacts

The consequences of renewable energy disruption will be strongly felt by the Australian sharemarket with the falling contribution from existing energy and resource companies.

High or low price, future returns will be low

Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.

Seismic change and investing in barbells

The stock market is increasingly looking like a 'barbell' of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.

Index funds lack checks on stocks they buy

The economics of Australia’s biggest listed companies will not turn significantly more positive in the next 10 years. Don’t expect the large cap-weighted indices to produce returns any better.

Latest Updates

Property

The 5% deposit scheme is bad for homeowners and Australia

An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.

Investment strategies

Is defensive the new offensive?

Relatively boring, unglamorous, defensive stocks like Kroger and Allstate have quietly outperformed gilded tech giants, offering steady growth, visibility, and resilient returns in a market captivated by AI and flashier industries.

Shares

How the RBA scores on its inflation goal

The Reserve Bank continues to face criticism from all sides. A reminder of the RBA's mandate and a review of their track record in maintaining price stability since the early 1990s.

Investment strategies

Levered credit: A late cycle ingredient for drawdown pain

As credit spreads normalised through 2025, yield‑hungry investors have turned to leverage for high returns, uncomfortably echoing pre‑GFC behaviours. Investors need to be careful to understand the true risk‑return trade‑off.

Planning

The more things change… longevity just goes on increasing

Australia needs a major shift in longevity awareness, attitudes and behaviour if, as a community, we are to reap the benefits of increasing longevity. Adopting a national strategy is well overdue.

Property

The improving outlook of Australian commercial real estate

The sector is positioned to benefit from defensive and resilient income streams supported by embedded rental increase opportunities. 

Property

Seize hidden opportunities among 50+ home buyer schemes in Australia

There is a laundry list of government schemes to help Australian's struggling with housing affordability. Savvy buyers should take advantage to break into the property market.

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