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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Fear of missing out trumping fear of loss

Argentina's economic history shows there's no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.

To zig or to zag?

At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.

The energy disruptions with forever impacts

The consequences of renewable energy disruption will be strongly felt by the Australian sharemarket with the falling contribution from existing energy and resource companies.

High or low price, future returns will be low

Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.

Seismic change and investing in barbells

The stock market is increasingly looking like a 'barbell' of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.

Index funds lack checks on stocks they buy

The economics of Australia’s biggest listed companies will not turn significantly more positive in the next 10 years. Don’t expect the large cap-weighted indices to produce returns any better.

Latest Updates

Taxation

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

Property

It's okay if house prices drop

The assumption that falling house prices are electorally fatal has shaped policy for decades. Evidence from upzoning suggests affordability can improve without reducing overall housing wealth.

Investment strategies

Investment bonds for intergenerational wealth transfer

Investment bonds can be a versatile and a tax-effective option for building wealth for longer-term investment goals. They can also be used as an estate planning tool, enabling the smooth transfer of wealth to younger generations.

Investment strategies

Why switching to income may make sense in 2026

Investors are jumpy as valuations continue to rise and income investing may provide a respite. In a challenging market for income investing AML offers their top picks.

Interviews

Retiring Schroders boss on lessons he’s learned, industry changes, and the market outlook

CEO Simon Doyle is retiring after 38 years in the finance industry. In an interview with James Gruber, he shares the three main lessons he’s learned, and where he sees opportunities and risks in markets today.

Investment strategies

How US midterm elections affect the markets

Investors may overlook the US midterms amid global events, but they could still impact markets. History shows markets react during midterm years, with increased volatility and lower returns. Will this year be any different?

Investing

Does increasing geopolitical risk lead to higher equity market returns?

Increasing geopolitical tensions has investors on edge but one study shows evidence of a war premium for equity markets.

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