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Roger Montgomery

High or low price, future returns will be low

Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.

Seismic change and investing in barbells

The stock market is increasingly looking like a 'barbell' of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.

Index funds lack checks on stocks they buy

The economics of Australia’s biggest listed companies will not turn significantly more positive in the next 10 years. Don’t expect the large cap-weighted indices to produce returns any better.

Perfect storm brewing for local retailers

A decline in activity related to household construction, combined with the arrival of foreign retail brands, does not bode well for Australian retailers. And an online behemoth may be an even bigger threat.

What should you do next?

Sticking to a value-driven investment strategy is difficult in a market fuelled by hope and buoyant expectations. At what point should investors forego the equity market rally to prepare for a possible correction?

Second-level thinking on Australian banks

Understanding the difference between first- and second-level thinking can make for more informed investment decisions, finding things others miss or bringing insights others don’t possess.

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Investment strategies

Getting rich vs staying rich

Strategies to get rich versus stay rich are markedly different. Here is a look at the five main ways to get rich, including through work, business, investing and luck, as well as those that preserve wealth.

Investment strategies

Does dividend investing make sense?

Dividend investing offers steady income and behavioral benefits, but its effectiveness depends on goals, market conditions, and fundamentals - especially in retirement, where it may limit full use of savings.

Economics

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

Strategy

Ageing in spurts

Fascinating initial studies suggest that while we age continuously in years, our bodies age, not at a uniform rate, but in spurts at around ages 44 and 60.

Interviews

Platinum's new international funds boss shifts gears

Portfolio Manager Ted Alexander outlines the changes that he's made to Platinum's International Fund portfolio since taking charge in March, while staying true to its contrarian, value-focused roots.

Investment strategies

Four ways to capitalise on a forgotten investing megatrend

The Trump administration has not killed the multi-decade investment opportunity in decarbonisation. These four industries in particular face a step-change in demand and could reward long-term investors.

Strategy

How the election polls got it so wrong

The recent federal election outcome has puzzled many, with Labor's significant win despite a modest primary vote share. Preference flows played a crucial role, highlighting the complexity of forecasting electoral results.

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