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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Investors should avoid extrapolating recent success

Don't extrapolate success without anticipating new ideas and competition. When consolidation of media power, personal data, or capital is concentrated in a few companies, society repels and rejects.

What NAB's announcement really means

NAB's latest announcement shows we are at a critical turning point with technology replacing jobs, and Australia lacks the political will to drive innovation and avoid declining living standards.

Fear of missing out trumping fear of loss

Argentina's economic history shows there's no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.

To zig or to zag?

At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.

The energy disruptions with forever impacts

The consequences of renewable energy disruption will be strongly felt by the Australian sharemarket with the falling contribution from existing energy and resource companies.

High or low price, future returns will be low

Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.

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Investment strategies

High quality businesses are on sale

Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.

Investment strategies

The whirlwind is upon us

Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.

Strategy

Inequality destabilises economies

Extreme wealth concentration is no longer just a side effect of growth. As inequality deepens, its consequences are shifting from a social concern to a broader threat to economic stability and democratic resilience.

Investment strategies

Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?

AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.

Taxation

Budget tax changes only scratch the surface. Here are 4 reforms Australia needs next

The 2026 budget has reignited Australia’s tax reform debate, but more work remains. Beneath the surface lies a harder question: what structural reforms are needed to make the country's tax system fit for the future?

Taxation

Negative gearing: quarantined, not killed

The Budget's negative gearing changes defer deductions rather than deny them, yet a worked example shows quarantining can reduce the tax benefit's present value for buyers of established dwellings.

Investment strategies

Family offices have quietly taken over Australian private capital

In just four years, Australia's private capital landscape has transformed. We are seeing changes across who deploys capital, how deals are structured and why new platforms and investor pathways are rapidly emerging.

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