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16 November 2025
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At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.
The consequences of renewable energy disruption will be strongly felt by the Australian sharemarket with the falling contribution from existing energy and resource companies.
Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.
The stock market is increasingly looking like a 'barbell' of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.
The economics of Australia’s biggest listed companies will not turn significantly more positive in the next 10 years. Don’t expect the large cap-weighted indices to produce returns any better.
A decline in activity related to household construction, combined with the arrival of foreign retail brands, does not bode well for Australian retailers. And an online behemoth may be an even bigger threat.
I’ve long seen Buffett as a flawed genius: a great investor though a man with shortcomings. With his final letter to Berkshire shareholders, I reflect on how my views of Buffett have changed and the legacy he leaves.
With rates on hold and housing demand strong, lenders are pushing boundaries. As risky products return, borrowers should be cautious and not let clever marketing cloud their judgment.
One sign of today's speculative market froth is that retail investors are winning, and winning big. It bears remarkable similarities to 1929 and 1999, and this story may not have a happy ending either.
Retirement outcomes aren’t just about average returns. The sequence of returns, good or bad, can dramatically shape how long super lasts. Understanding sequencing risk is key to managing longevity risk.
The use of generative AI in search is on the rise and has profound implications for search engines like Google, as well as for companies that rely on clicks to make sales.
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Technological leaps - from air travel to computing - has enriched society but squeezed margins. As AI accelerates, investors must separate progress from profitability to avoid repeating past mistakes.
Today’s consumers are walking contradictions - craving simplicity in an age of abundance, privacy in a public world. These tensions tell a bigger story about what people truly value and why.