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Roger Montgomery

Don’t let Brexit rush you to the exit

The media screams the scary headlines at times like Brexit as the share market reacts to the uncertainty. Investors need to ignore the shouting and accept with equanimity that this is the cost of participation.

Cash is king when the market holds the aces

Cash gives options over future lower prices, and it avoids the risk of permanent capital loss. But it comes with another risk, the loss of purchasing power, and is not a good long-term investment.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Landmines in the Field of Dreams

It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.

Can US house price falls happen here?

Residential housing is the largest asset class in Australia, supporting the most debt, which explains all the talk about the potential for a housing price bubble.

Dick Smith prospectus failed to disclose

If we glean anything from the demise of Dick Smith, it is that Australia's disclosure requirements for prospectuses need serious improvement. The market is not properly informed during new share issues.

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Retirement

The retirement account that Australia should have

Our retirement system asks one account to do two very different jobs. A dedicated "rainy day" account separating income from emergency savings could deliver better outcomes and greater peace of mind for retirees.

Investing

What the US midterm results mean for investors

Democrats have regained control of Congress, changing the equation in Washington. Whether that proves positive for investors will depend less on the result itself and more on what happens next for growth and markets.

Taxation

Should the capital gains tax reward risk?

A reader query on the recent CGT reforms has revealed a bigger issue. One overlooked feature of the old system may have done more than compensate for inflation. As we move to indexation, are we forgetting to reward risk?

Investment strategies

Bonds: The income and diversification trade-off

Rising yields have made bonds attractive again, but that does not mean they will behave as expected. As inflation, fiscal pressures and geopolitical risks reshape markets, the role of bonds may be more complicated than it appears.

Investment strategies

Why high-dividend investing deserves another look

Income investors have endured several lean years, but signs of a recovery are emerging. As opportunities improve, investors face an important choice between chasing headline yields and building a reliable source of income.

Investment strategies

Why 'overvalued' has been such an expensive word

Investors love simple rules, especially when markets appear stretched. Yet some of the strongest returns have arrived when the outlook seemed least attractive. This leaves an important question that history struggles to answer.

Investment strategies

AI – A good kind of bubble or just a bubble?

Investor obsession with AI is attracting unprecedented amounts of capital and confidence. But beneath the excitement lies uncertainties about returns, funding and risks that enthusiasts may not be paying enough attention to.

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