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Roger Montgomery

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Landmines in the Field of Dreams

It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.

Can US house price falls happen here?

Residential housing is the largest asset class in Australia, supporting the most debt, which explains all the talk about the potential for a housing price bubble.

Dick Smith prospectus failed to disclose

If we glean anything from the demise of Dick Smith, it is that Australia's disclosure requirements for prospectuses need serious improvement. The market is not properly informed during new share issues.

What to do with your equity portfolio in 2016

When making decisions on your equity portfolio, try ignoring the noise of the financial media and concentrate on companies that will continue to generate high returns on capital.

Chasing dividends often overlooks growth

The market has been supplying investors with high dividend-paying stocks, but unfortunately, this focus overlooks better opportunities with more growth and capital appreciation.

Latest Updates

Retirement

2 billion reasons to fix retirement income

A proposal to address Australia's 'stranded balances' in retirement by requiring super funds to transition members to pension phase at 65, boosting retirement income and reframing super as a source of income.

Investment strategies

Not much alpha left in this bet

Google redefined advertising with its innovative business model, but its dominance is now under siege from AI competitors and shifting market dynamics.

Five simple reasons why Australian cash rates are highest

Australians are suffering the highest cash rates amongst their rich country peers for five simple reasons, including outdated inflation targeting and undisciplined monetary and fiscal policies.

Investment strategies

Spending big on AI: So where’s the proof it’s working?

Business leaders must reassess AI's return on investment using new frameworks that reflect productivity, capability shifts and long-term value creation.

Economy

Double down on renewables?

Global volatility has sharpened Australia's focus on energy security. Calls for domestic fuel production clash with renewable energy goals, sparking a debate on balancing traditional and sustainable energy sources effectively.

Investment strategies

Private Credit headwinds move onshore

It’s been a volatile couple of months in markets with the ongoing conflict in Iran. For Australian private credit investors, however, large exposures to real estate lending could mean the worst is yet to come.

Property

Five reasons unlisted commercial property is an attractive allocation in uncertain times

Cromwell takes a look at replacement cost as a practical lens on relative value in commercial property. When build-new costs rise faster than asset pricing, the gap can create opportunities in well-located existing assets.

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