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Roger Montgomery

Cash is king when the market holds the aces

Cash gives options over future lower prices, and it avoids the risk of permanent capital loss. But it comes with another risk, the loss of purchasing power, and is not a good long-term investment.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Landmines in the Field of Dreams

It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.

Can US house price falls happen here?

Residential housing is the largest asset class in Australia, supporting the most debt, which explains all the talk about the potential for a housing price bubble.

Dick Smith prospectus failed to disclose

If we glean anything from the demise of Dick Smith, it is that Australia's disclosure requirements for prospectuses need serious improvement. The market is not properly informed during new share issues.

What to do with your equity portfolio in 2016

When making decisions on your equity portfolio, try ignoring the noise of the financial media and concentrate on companies that will continue to generate high returns on capital.

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Planning

Does your will qualify for the discretionary testamentary trust exemption?

Treasury has confirmed the exemption many families were hoping for. But buried in the fine print are two conditions that could leave some wills on the wrong side of the exemption, despite years of careful planning.

Lithium's latest drop and what it means for ASX investors

Lithium's latest sell-off has punished ASX miners as prices remain hostage to shifting expectations. The key challenge is navigating a market prone to extreme volatility despite a strong case for the long-term demand outlook.

Investment strategies

CGT reform and fund turnover: who really feels the impact?

The implications of CGT reform are far and wide. As the 50% discount gives way to inflation indexation, turnover and return profiles may become critical drivers of after-tax performance. Some strategies face a far greater hit.

Superannuation

Super was built for a very different Australia

Our retirement system was built around assumptions that no longer hold. Lower homeownership, longer lifespans and changing expectations are exposing cracks that policymakers and super funds need to address.

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 4 months in

Many people spend years planning financially for retirement but little time preparing for what comes next. Four months in, here are the surprising lessons I've learnt on finding purpose, social connection and healthy habits.

Investment strategies

After the Budget, Australia needs its own definition of quality

As tax reforms reshape investment incentives, investors should rethink what quality investing means in the uniquely concentrated Australian market, where traditional frameworks may not translate as effectively.

Datacenters are the new shale oil

Why are tech giants pouring billions into datacentres when the economics look questionable? The most dangerous words in investing may be: "everyone else is doing it". Today's AI boom has striking parallels with the shale bust.

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