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Roger Montgomery

How to think rationally about shares

Whether it’s too difficult or produces too much volatility, few investors simply purchase a portfolio of 15 to 20 excellent businesses at attractive prices, and give them time to deliver the returns. Why settle for less?

Index funds invest in the bad and the good

The promise of diversification, low costs and access to overseas markets are boosting the popularity of all types of index funds, but broadly diversified cap-weighted equity index funds can only promise ‘average’ returns.

This is mean (-reverting that is)

Fundamentals might not be making a lot of sense right now, but sooner or later mean reversion will kick in. Nobody knows the timing but you should be standing near the exit doors to take advantage of it.

Bubbles and the corruption of risk

With cash investments providing such poor returns, the search for yield has driven up share and property prices, some to unrealistic levels. It has also corrupted our sense of risk which is a dangerous combination.

Who’ll win in our National Broadband Network future?

Telstra’s competitive advantage in regional areas may be under threat after the National Broadband Network is rolled out because wholesale costs are expected to equalise for smaller retail service providers.

A Christmas fireside chat

As we wrap up 2014 and position ourselves on the blocks of 2015, it is worth considering how investors and consumers might behave. The big uncertainties centre around economic growth, inflation and the value of stocks.

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Retirement

How to enjoy your retirement

Amid thousands of comments, tips include developing interests to keep occupied, planning in advance to have enough money, staying connected with friends and communities ... should you defer retirement or just do it?

Retirement

Results from our retirement experiences survey

Retirement is a good experience if you plan for it and manage your time, but freedom from money worries is key. Many retirees enjoy managing their money but SMSFs are not for everyone. Each retirement is different.

Interviews

Why short-termism is both a travesty and an opportunity

On any given day, whether the stockmarket rises or falls is a coin toss, but stay invested for 10 years and the odds are excellent. It's at times of market selloffs that opportunities present for long-term investors.

Investment strategies

Fear is good if you are not part of the herd

If you feel fear when the market loses its head, you become part of the herd. Develop habits to embrace the fear. Identify the cause, decide if you need to take action and own the result without looking back. 

No excuses: Plan now for recession

The signs of a coming recession are building, especially in the US. In personal and business decisions, it's time to be more conservative and engage in risk management until some of the uncertainty is resolved. 

Strategy

The fall of Volt Bank removes another bank competitor

The startup banks were supposed to challenge the lazy, oligopolistic major banks, but 86 400, Xinja and now Volt have gone. Why did Volt disappear so quickly when it had gained deposit support and name recognition?

Strategy

Three main challenges to online ads and ‘surveillance capitalism’

Surveillance capitalism refers to the collection and use of consumer data to further profits. Will a renewed focus on privacy change the online-ad business model, or is it too entrenched?

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