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Roger Montgomery

Cash is king when the market holds the aces

Cash gives options over future lower prices, and it avoids the risk of permanent capital loss. But it comes with another risk, the loss of purchasing power, and is not a good long-term investment.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Landmines in the Field of Dreams

It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.

Can US house price falls happen here?

Residential housing is the largest asset class in Australia, supporting the most debt, which explains all the talk about the potential for a housing price bubble.

Dick Smith prospectus failed to disclose

If we glean anything from the demise of Dick Smith, it is that Australia's disclosure requirements for prospectuses need serious improvement. The market is not properly informed during new share issues.

What to do with your equity portfolio in 2016

When making decisions on your equity portfolio, try ignoring the noise of the financial media and concentrate on companies that will continue to generate high returns on capital.

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Ranking three common retirement strategies

The defining challenge of retirement isn't just about building wealth, it's about converting your lifetime savings into sustainable income. A holistic understanding of different strategies can improve long-term outcomes.

Economy

Was life really better in the good old days?

Are we worse off than previous generations? Lately, there seems to be a heightened level of angst that economic conditions are getting harder and that the two-party political system (and maybe democracy too) is failing voters.

Retirement

Australia has saved $4.5 trillion for retirement. Here's what matters more

Most Australians approaching retirement can tell you the exact dollar value of their super account. But success depends on more than a sizeable balance. Here's four key questions to ask yourself at the start of the financial year. 

Who gains in an AI-supercharged economy?

AI is already reshaping the economy, but companies building transformative technologies rarely capture the greatest long-term value. Instead, those benefits accrue to the users. We may well see this pattern reproduced. 

Taxation

Div 296's million-dollar reset worth $25,000

The 'cost base reset' for the new super tax is being sold as protection for pre-July gains. A worked example shows $1M of protection is worth about $25,000, and the real deadline has not passed.

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The forecasting fix that Wall Street missed

Asking whether markets are overpriced may be the wrong question. New research suggests that traditional valuation metrics used to forecast returns may have been misread. Here are five takeaways for investors.

Investment strategies

Should a fund manager invest their own money differently?

Investors often like the idea that fund managers should invest client money exactly as they invest their own. But reality is more complicated. Unique circumstances make a different approach rational and, at times, beneficial.

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