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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Cash is king when the market holds the aces

Cash gives options over future lower prices, and it avoids the risk of permanent capital loss. But it comes with another risk, the loss of purchasing power, and is not a good long-term investment.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Landmines in the Field of Dreams

It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.

Can US house price falls happen here?

Residential housing is the largest asset class in Australia, supporting the most debt, which explains all the talk about the potential for a housing price bubble.

Dick Smith prospectus failed to disclose

If we glean anything from the demise of Dick Smith, it is that Australia's disclosure requirements for prospectuses need serious improvement. The market is not properly informed during new share issues.

What to do with your equity portfolio in 2016

When making decisions on your equity portfolio, try ignoring the noise of the financial media and concentrate on companies that will continue to generate high returns on capital.

Latest Updates

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

The government's recent deal with the Greens has put SMSF property borrowing on the chopping block. The change raises tricky questions about timing, exceptions and what SMSFs will still be able to buy.

Shares

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Australia’s market boasts a long record of outperformance, but recent results tell a different story. Is the ASX’s lagging performance a temporary setback or evidence that structural forces will keep global markets ahead?

Taxation

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

The 30% minimum tax on capital gains sits at the heart of the budget's proposed reforms. Yet the mechanics reveal anomalies that introduce unexpected distortions that raise questions about its design.

Shares

The next phase of Australian equity leadership

For years, banks have powered Australian sharemarket returns. But changing economic conditions, stretched valuations and global trends suggest the next generation of winners may not be found in familiar domestic sectors.

Economy

Global market growth hinges on Iran War and AI rollout

Global growth is facing mounting pressure from war, higher oil prices, inflation and trade tensions. But a wave of AI-related investment may prove powerful enough to support economic activity and reshape the outlook for markets.

Retirement

The retirees who can't spend

Why do so many retirees pass away with their wealth intact? Conventional wisdom blames pension rules for the reluctance to spend, but a case study from New Zealand shows that the answer may not be as predictable.

Investment strategies

Here’s my investment philosophy. What’s yours?

Investors often hear they need an “investment philosophy,” yet few know what that really means. Beneath the jargon sits a simple idea: a handful of core beliefs that shape every financial decision, for better or worse.

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