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Roger Montgomery

Residential investment property fails simple valuation test

Residential property for investment purposes can be valued like any other financial asset that produces a series of cash flow.

Expect disappointment as values become stretched

When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.

Testing Ben Graham’s voting and weighing machines

Prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business, but in the long term, prices eventually converge with intrinsic values. It's the difference between voting and weighing.

Ben Graham’s three most enduring principles

In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.

Wipeout – the problem with goodwill

If high levels of intangibles are not written down by the auditors – even after years of generating mediocre returns – the market will often do the writing down for them. Either way, shareholders receive lousy returns.

Airlines and indices

If you are not happy to own the entire business for a decade, you should not be comfortable owners of even one share for just a few minutes. Time is the friend of the extraordinary business but the enemy of the poor business.

Latest Updates

Property

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

Strategy

CBA, AUSTRAC and our Orwellian privacy laws

Imagine waking up to an email from your bank demanding to know if you keep cash at home - and threatening to freeze your accounts if you don't respond in seven days. This happened to me and it raises some disturbing questions. 

SMSF strategies

The ultimate superannuation EOFY checklist 2025

Here is a checklist of 27 important issues you should address with your advisers before June 30 to ensure your SMSF or other fund are in order and that you are making the most of the strategies available.

Shares

Why 'boring' Big Four banks remain attractive

Despite a brief correction last month, Australian bank share prices have continued their impressive runs. Recent results show the banks remain in good shape though some are faring better than others. 

Investment strategies

Ophir on Trump, constant improvement, and Life360

In this interview, Ophir’s Andrew Mitchell outlines how he’s handled recent Trump-fuelled volatility, his three key criteria for picking stocks, and why he thinks Life360 is set for much bigger things.

Investment strategies

Investor warns of danger in Big Super’s pet asset class

Dan Rasmussen says the flood of capital into private assets outstrips the opportunity set and the economic substance of most companies being bought and lent to. When inflows turn to outflows, the impact could be stark.

Economy

Government investment is remarkably effective

A new study challenges the myth that government spending is wasteful - public investment, especially outside the US, can yield major long-term economic gains, often outperforming private investment in driving GDP growth.

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