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Roger Montgomery

Residential investment property fails simple valuation test

Residential property for investment purposes can be valued like any other financial asset that produces a series of cash flow.

Expect disappointment as values become stretched

When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.

Testing Ben Graham’s voting and weighing machines

Prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business, but in the long term, prices eventually converge with intrinsic values. It's the difference between voting and weighing.

Ben Graham’s three most enduring principles

In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.

Wipeout – the problem with goodwill

If high levels of intangibles are not written down by the auditors – even after years of generating mediocre returns – the market will often do the writing down for them. Either way, shareholders receive lousy returns.

Airlines and indices

If you are not happy to own the entire business for a decade, you should not be comfortable owners of even one share for just a few minutes. Time is the friend of the extraordinary business but the enemy of the poor business.

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Planning

How the typical Australian Family could save $844,350 in taxes

The value of a testamentary trust is not determined by wealth alone. Depending on circumstances, it can reduce the tax burden on inherited income, create efficiencies and help build intergenerational wealth.

Superannuation

There's a reason why your super is locked up until your 60s

For decades, it seemed settled. Then one controversial idea reignited a debate that could reshape the financial future of millions. The real question isn’t who’s right or wrong, but whether a long-held assumption deserves another look.

Property

The housing slide could become a crash

House prices are sliding across Australia, yet the most dangerous ingredient for a housing crash is still missing. If job losses surge amid growing economic risks, today's correction could become a historic property downturn.

Retirement

Under-retiring: The greatest retirement risk in a generation

Two retirees. Similar savings. Completely different lives. New research from Challenger reveals why some Australians confidently spend in retirement while others hold back and the overlooked factor shaping retirement decisions.

Five risks to watch in markets

Things you may often hear are: a recession is around the corner, markets are overpriced, the AI sector is about to flop at any moment. It’s like the never-ending laundry pile that sits in my house, it never really disappears.

Investment strategies

Do you qualify as ‘rich’?

What does it mean to be 'rich'? For something so universally desired, it is surprisingly difficult to define. That ambiguity creates a challenge for investors and raises a bigger question about what financial success really looks like.

Investment strategies

If you’re worried about your bond portfolio, you’re missing the point

Most investors think they know what bonds are for. But when markets turn volatile, a surprising misunderstanding can lead to costly decisions. Here’s the overlooked lesson that could change how you view your portfolio.

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