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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Residential investment property fails simple valuation test

Residential property for investment purposes can be valued like any other financial asset that produces a series of cash flow.

Expect disappointment as values become stretched

When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.

Testing Ben Graham’s voting and weighing machines

Prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business, but in the long term, prices eventually converge with intrinsic values. It's the difference between voting and weighing.

Ben Graham’s three most enduring principles

In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.

Wipeout – the problem with goodwill

If high levels of intangibles are not written down by the auditors – even after years of generating mediocre returns – the market will often do the writing down for them. Either way, shareholders receive lousy returns.

Airlines and indices

If you are not happy to own the entire business for a decade, you should not be comfortable owners of even one share for just a few minutes. Time is the friend of the extraordinary business but the enemy of the poor business.

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Retirement

The retirement scorecard: how many of these questions can you answer?

From the maths of retirement, estimating spending and picking the right asset allocation to survive a poor decade, here are the questions every retiree – current or future – should be able to answer for themselves.

2026 is not 1999

The US market looks eerily similar to the dot-com era with soaring AI spending and tech giants dominating returns. But one difference separates today’s boom from the dot-com bubble and it could determine what happens next.

Planning

Taxing time for trusts

Trusts are facing a shake-up, but an overhaul may not be necessary. Families can explore restructuring strategies that preserve succession and the asset protection benefits that have made these structures valuable.

Economy

Why the US economy is stronger than you might think

War, inflation and higher rates were expected to derail America. But has the market got it wrong? Three forces are driving the economy beyond expectations, revealing implications for stock prices and portfolio positioning.

Gold

How much trust is in your portfolio?

Everyone talks about diversifying assets. Far fewer think about diversifying trust. As inflation, debt and market assumptions collide, the question is whether portfolios need greater protection from unexpected outcomes.

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 7 months in

Seven months into retirement, I'm still uncovering surprises. This month was spent reflecting on the slow pace of health change, the myth of neatly scheduled part-time work and the unexpected persistence of retirement guilt.

The new geography of technology leadership

The next chapter of technology may not belong to the companies or business models many expect. As the landscape shifts, some opportunities are emerging in places that remain surprisingly overlooked by global markets.

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