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21 January 2026
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In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.
If high levels of intangibles are not written down by the auditors – even after years of generating mediocre returns – the market will often do the writing down for them. Either way, shareholders receive lousy returns.
If you are not happy to own the entire business for a decade, you should not be comfortable owners of even one share for just a few minutes. Time is the friend of the extraordinary business but the enemy of the poor business.
Price is what you pay for something, but value is what you will receive and the value will ultimately determine your return. Your job as an investor then, is to own shares that are worth more than you paid for them.
If a company is growing, with increasing equity and profits, how does an investor know that management and the board are dudding shareholders?
As equity holders we love to see companies reporting profit growth. In fact, we become wary if they don't. Find out how the wrong sort of growth can quickly and permanently destroy wealth.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.
Lump sum investing usually wins, but it can hurt if markets fall. Using 50 years of Australian data, we reveal when staging your entry protects you, and when it drags on returns.
It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.
The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.
Most people know Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela has oil. Few grasp the depth of suffering or the country’s democratic history - essential context as the US ousts Maduro and charts Venezuela’s future.