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Roger Montgomery

Avoid too much yeast when making dough

In 2013, M&A market confidence returned and we are already seeing an increase in deal activity this year. However, investors should watch closely to ensure that over-confidence doesn't get in the way of value creation.

Think about risks as well as returns

We focus far more on the return from our investments rather than the risk, and we should watch for leverage or high risk-taking and expect to be rewarded for it to pay for the added risk.

Material shift from production to distribution

Local production in some industries has become less viable due to Asia’s lower costs, and companies need to adapt. Some of our biggest producers in the fuel and cement industries have transitioned to distribution.

Sometimes, it pays to find the truly visionary leaders

Looking beyond the top quality companies, it pays to find the true visionaries, the companies whose prospects are compelling into the distant future because of the strong momentum they have built.

One day, you’ll be glad you feel old and tired

When you've been around long enough to have witnessed financial disasters, you wonder at the exuberance of youth embracing the great unknown. Are you missing out or will being old and tired eventually prevail?

Don’t go swimming naked for a short term thrill

Poor quality companies sometimes deliver impressive short term gains, especially when left behind in a previous rally, but the longer term is likely to disappoint. When equity markets turn, nobody likes to be exposed.

Latest Updates

Property

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

Strategy

CBA, AUSTRAC and our Orwellian privacy laws

Imagine waking up to an email from your bank demanding to know if you keep cash at home - and threatening to freeze your accounts if you don't respond in seven days. This happened to me and it raises some disturbing questions. 

SMSF strategies

The ultimate superannuation EOFY checklist 2025

Here is a checklist of 27 important issues you should address with your advisers before June 30 to ensure your SMSF or other fund are in order and that you are making the most of the strategies available.

Shares

Why 'boring' Big Four banks remain attractive

Despite a brief correction last month, Australian bank share prices have continued their impressive runs. Recent results show the banks remain in good shape though some are faring better than others. 

Investment strategies

Ophir on Trump, constant improvement, and Life360

In this interview, Ophir’s Andrew Mitchell outlines how he’s handled recent Trump-fuelled volatility, his three key criteria for picking stocks, and why he thinks Life360 is set for much bigger things.

Investment strategies

Investor warns of danger in Big Super’s pet asset class

Dan Rasmussen says the flood of capital into private assets outstrips the opportunity set and the economic substance of most companies being bought and lent to. When inflows turn to outflows, the impact could be stark.

Economy

Government investment is remarkably effective

A new study challenges the myth that government spending is wasteful - public investment, especially outside the US, can yield major long-term economic gains, often outperforming private investment in driving GDP growth.

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