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Roger Montgomery

Don’t set and forget

Investors are often advised to take the long-term view and pay little attention to the ups and downs of the market. But adopting a strict ‘set and forget’ strategy can sometimes be short-sighted.

Technical versus fundamental analysis in equity markets

The two main approaches used to find good companies in equity markets are technical and fundamental analyses. Devotees of each style will argue their way is best. Roger Montgomery favours the fundamentals.

Avoid too much yeast when making dough

In 2013, M&A market confidence returned and we are already seeing an increase in deal activity this year. However, investors should watch closely to ensure that over-confidence doesn't get in the way of value creation.

Think about risks as well as returns

We focus far more on the return from our investments rather than the risk, and we should watch for leverage or high risk-taking and expect to be rewarded for it to pay for the added risk.

Material shift from production to distribution

Local production in some industries has become less viable due to Asia’s lower costs, and companies need to adapt. Some of our biggest producers in the fuel and cement industries have transitioned to distribution.

Sometimes, it pays to find the truly visionary leaders

Looking beyond the top quality companies, it pays to find the true visionaries, the companies whose prospects are compelling into the distant future because of the strong momentum they have built.

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Investment strategies

Why I dislike dividend stocks

If you need income then buying dividend stocks makes perfect sense. But if you don’t then it makes little sense because it’s likely to limit building real wealth. Here’s what you should do instead.

Superannuation

Meg on SMSFs: Indexation of Division 296 tax isn't enough

Labor is reviewing the $3 million super tax's most contentious aspects: lack of indexation and the tax on unrealised gains. Those fighting for change shouldn’t just settle for indexation of the threshold.

Shares

Will ASX dividends rise over the next 12 months?

Market forecasts for ASX dividend yields are at a 30-year low amid fears about the economy and the capacity for banks and resource companies to pay higher dividends. This pessimism seems overdone.

Shares

Expensive market valuations may make sense

World share markets seem toppy at first glance, though digging deeper reveals important nuances. While the top 2% of stocks are pricey, they're also growing faster, and the remaining 98% are inexpensive versus history.

Fixed interest

The end of the strong US dollar cycle

The US dollar’s overvaluation, weaker fundamentals, and crowded positioning point to further downside. Diversifying into non-US equities and emerging market debt may offer opportunities for global investors.

Investment strategies

Today’s case for floating rate notes

Market volatility and uncertainty in 2025 prompt the need for a diversified portfolio. Floating Rate Notes offer stability, income, and protection against interest rate risks, making them a valuable investment option.

Strategy

Breaking down recent footy finals by the numbers

In a first, 2025 saw AFL and NRL minor premiers both go out in straight sets. AFL data suggests the pre-finals bye is weakening the stranglehold of top-4 sides more than ever before.

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