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Roger Montgomery

Learn your knowns and unknowns

When investing capital, you expect the return to adequately compensate you for the likelihood of loss. Understanding both risk and reward is vital, so the more you know about 'knowns' and 'unknowns' the better.

Don’t set and forget

Investors are often advised to take the long-term view and pay little attention to the ups and downs of the market. But adopting a strict ‘set and forget’ strategy can sometimes be short-sighted.

Technical versus fundamental analysis in equity markets

The two main approaches used to find good companies in equity markets are technical and fundamental analyses. Devotees of each style will argue their way is best. Roger Montgomery favours the fundamentals.

Avoid too much yeast when making dough

In 2013, M&A market confidence returned and we are already seeing an increase in deal activity this year. However, investors should watch closely to ensure that over-confidence doesn't get in the way of value creation.

Think about risks as well as returns

We focus far more on the return from our investments rather than the risk, and we should watch for leverage or high risk-taking and expect to be rewarded for it to pay for the added risk.

Material shift from production to distribution

Local production in some industries has become less viable due to Asia’s lower costs, and companies need to adapt. Some of our biggest producers in the fuel and cement industries have transitioned to distribution.

Latest Updates

Property

The 5% deposit scheme is bad for homeowners and Australia

An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.

Investment strategies

Is defensive the new offensive?

Relatively boring, unglamorous, defensive stocks like Kroger and Allstate have quietly outperformed gilded tech giants, offering steady growth, visibility, and resilient returns in a market captivated by AI and flashier industries.

Shares

How the RBA scores on its inflation goal

The Reserve Bank continues to face criticism from all sides. A reminder of the RBA's mandate and a review of their track record in maintaining price stability since the early 1990s.

Investment strategies

Levered credit: A late cycle ingredient for drawdown pain

As credit spreads normalised through 2025, yield‑hungry investors have turned to leverage for high returns, uncomfortably echoing pre‑GFC behaviours. Investors need to be careful to understand the true risk‑return trade‑off.

Planning

The more things change… longevity just goes on increasing

Australia needs a major shift in longevity awareness, attitudes and behaviour if, as a community, we are to reap the benefits of increasing longevity. Adopting a national strategy is well overdue.

Property

The improving outlook of Australian commercial real estate

The sector is positioned to benefit from defensive and resilient income streams supported by embedded rental increase opportunities. 

Property

Seize hidden opportunities among 50+ home buyer schemes in Australia

There is a laundry list of government schemes to help Australian's struggling with housing affordability. Savvy buyers should take advantage to break into the property market.

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