Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 673

Post-Budget blues? A knee jerk won’t help

The tax changes in May’s federal Budget have triggered a familiar reflex among wealthy families and their advisers: how do we reduce some of the pain?

There is a fair bit to weigh up. Division 296 is now law, taxing super balances above $3 million from 1 July 2026. The CGT and negative gearing changes passed in June and are law too, in force from 1 July 2027. The trust reform is still moving, and families aren't necessarily waiting to see how it settles before they act.

When structural change lands at once, the instinct is to restructure – reallocate toward income, rework the trust, shift ownership, and trim exposure to whatever triggers the biggest tax event.

I understand the urge to act quickly, but I'm not convinced an automatic response holds up.

We spend a lot of time with families who ask a hard question of their portfolio: "am I invested correctly?" I fear, however, they should be asking a harder version: "am I building something that can outlast me?"

For most families restructuring right now, the honest answer is no. A smaller tax bill this year says nothing about whether the portfolio can still do its job in 2046. Before restructuring because of the Budget, sit with these five questions first.

Does the new allocation still earn what's needed?

Gregory Clark, the University of California, Davis economist behind The Son Also Rises, tracked English families across more than 400 years and found that wealth and status hold on far longer than most people expect. What rarely holds on is the money itself. Fortunes get divided, spent and diluted, and by the time you reach the great-grandchildren the size of the original inheritance barely shows up in the outcome.

Once you allow for a growing family, spending, tax and fees, keeping real wealth intact across generations takes something close to a 9% real return, year after year. That's demanding in any environment, and treasurer Chalmers’ Budget makes it even harder. Every dollar lost to CGT timing, and every structure that trades growth for a cleaner tax outcome, pushes the hurdle further away.

A restructure that shaves this year’s tax bill but caps the compounding ability of your portfolio is not necessarily a win, in fact it is more likely a short fix way of losing. Before signing off on any change, the family should understand the real return the new structure needs to produce, not just the tax it saves.

What are you giving up to save the tax?

Tax efficiency and portfolio resilience are not the same thing, but the Budget makes it easy to mistake one for the other.

Trusts are the clearest example. In theory, families using them for genuine succession and asset protection should carry on. In practice, once you strip out the income-splitting benefit and add on a flat 30% minimum tax, a lot of the appeal goes, and we expect many families to move toward company structures as the primary holding vehicle.

The detail here is still being written. The trust measure isn't law yet, a second bill is due later this year with the carve-outs, and existing testamentary trusts are already set to be spared. Restructure around a headline now and you risk locking in a structure built for a rule that no longer applies by the time the final detail is legislated.

Bucket companies as a strategy lose most of their appeal too. A corporate beneficiary gets no credit for tax the trust has already paid, creating double taxation of the same income.

None of that is wrong to act on. It is a trade, and the family should be able to say plainly what they're giving up for the perceived benefit.

Is the family taking on more risk than they realise?

Some alternatives on offer look better on paper than in practice.

The new-build property exemption preserves both negative gearing and the 50% discount, arguably the most tax-friendly residential exposure outside super. But a tax break doesn't fix build quality, completion risk, or oversupply in the wrong postcode.

Super has come through the Budget remarkably intact and remains the most lightly taxed structure available. But Division 296 is now a real constraint at the top, and contribution caps and preservation rules mean it can only do so much of the work.

Reallocating growth assets into index-tracking exposure is another common move. It feels simple, liquid, and diversified almost by definition. Though, that assumption deserves scrutiny: passive exposure marketed as diversification is often a concentrated bet in disguise. The ASX 300's top ten now make up around 46% of the index, and the S&P 500's at close to 38%. Concentration risk is real.

If chasing tax efficiency pushes a family further into any of these lanes than they'd otherwise choose, that is a cost, not a long-term strategy.

Is any restructure planned as one whole, or piecemeal?

All families make mistakes. But taking a single decision without looking at the whole picture is one of the best mistakes to avoid.

Take a family holding an asset with a large unrealised gain as the CGT rules change from 1 July 2027. One might realise it beforehand and redeploy. Another might hold and manage around it. Either can be right, but only once CGT timing, Division 296 exposure, drawdown needs and the shape of the wider portfolio are weighed together rather than solved as separate problems. The mistake is rarely which option you pick. It is picking one before you have seen how it moves everything else.

Is it sometimes safer to just absorb the tax?

The conversations we've had since Budget night tell us families are genuinely alarmed, not by any single measure, but by the combined picture. Trusts, CGT, negative gearing, and Division 296 are all moving in the same direction, all between now and 2028.

I don't think the wealthy will panic-sell, but capital that sits, waits, or quietly goes offshore is a real prospect, and so is a portfolio pushed to earn back every dollar of tax saved through a restructure.

A bigger cheque to the ATO is not the scoreboard. Sometimes the pragmatic, less elegant choice, paying tax that a more aggressive restructure might have avoided, is the one that lets families stay invested for the long term, and able to sleep at night.

None of this is an argument against asset restructuring. Some restructures are the right call, regardless of the Federal Budget impact. Maybe the trust needed fixing anyway, or the super settings were never suited to the family in the first place.

The test is whether the decision stands on those grounds, and not because a headline tax saving made one line item of the spreadsheet look better.

Across four centuries of data studied by the industrious Clark, the money itself was never what carried a family from one generation to the next. It was judgement, discipline, and the willingness to keep going when the easy answer was to cash out.

Families that lost everything through war or policy shock often rebuilt within a generation or two, not because they recovered the original capital, but because they'd kept the capability to generate it.

A tax-efficient structure teaches the next generation none of that. It just moves numbers between boxes, while the underlying portfolio quietly becomes less effective at the one job that matters most.

So restructure when the restructure earns its place, not simply because Jim Chalmers gave you a reason to. A smaller tax bill and a portfolio that compounds for decades are not the same thing, and the 2026 Budget is about to make that distinction expensive to get wrong.

 

Joshua Derrington is the Chief Investment Officer, Alvia Asset Partners, an independent family office investment manager.

 

  •   29 July 2026
  • 12
  •      
  •   
12 Comments
Kate
July 30, 2026

Aussie HiFire, it's worse than that IMHO. The government does really want your money, but it only wants to take it from those who aren't wealthy enough to do something about it. Even $1 too rich for welfare makes you a target.

21
David
August 02, 2026

That's it. Everyone talks about the wealthy being punished. We are not wealthy. We are retired on an income stream account. When we can, we subsidise our income by selling a few shares, deliberately keeping the capital gain below $18,200. It helps a bit. After 1st of July 2027, we'll lose 30% of it, albeit with our gain being below what is supposed to be a tax-free threshold.

2
Dudley
August 03, 2026


"keeping the capital gain below $18,200":

Current couple SAPTO tax free threshold is 2 * $31,888.
Marginal tax rate $31,888 + $1 is 28.5%.
Commute disbursement account capital (0% income tax) to accumulation account capital (15% income tax), defer income, bring forward capital gain realisation?

Craig
July 30, 2026

The discretionary trust tax proposal structures a tax penalty for everyone with less than $200k income - & the biggest penalty is for those with lowest distributions - in my experience during my working life that's getting at folk just starting out and in many cases new migrants starting family businesses.

Wealthy folk with large distributions won't be troubled - Jimbo just wants to make sure folk starting out are given an extra anchor to hold them back

10
OldbutSane
August 02, 2026

Having worked as an accountant I found most trust distributions go to those who don't actually work in the business. If they do work in the business then simply increase their wages to avoid the 30% issue.

2
AccentOnYouEnglish
August 02, 2026

JC has come up with an excellent way to ensure that private capital will go offshore, where it is far more welcome than it is in Australia. As we see in our daily contact with well-educated new Australians, they are stunned by how stupid Australia is. Instead of going after the massive corporations paying very low tax, JC is going after absolutely every individual, including young people, not just "Those Boomers" who had the gall to work their a### off for decades and follow the rules that were imposed on them during their working lives. Now, they are being punished for that crime.

9
David
August 03, 2026

In my humble opinion, this cgt change is all a set up so that in the 2027 budget they will change the tax on dividends to 30% as well, thus ensuring that there will be no tax refunds due to franking credits. Blind Freddy speaking.

5
Lyn
August 03, 2026

Yes, figure of 30% re current changes all too coincidental, why not 25, 32 or 35%, I feel it is leading to that too.

Mick
July 31, 2026

You don't have to be "wealthy" to have a reaction to the politics of envy, Joshua.

3
Jeff O
July 30, 2026

Joshua - please advise the reasoning behind your statement above -“Once you allow for a growing family, spending, tax and fees, keeping real wealth intact across generations takes something close to a 9% real return, year after year.”

2
Dudley
July 30, 2026


"keeping real wealth intact across generations takes something close to a 9% real return, year after year.":

= (1 + (1 - 30%) * 9%) / (1 + 4%) - 1
= 2.2% / y real net.

That before deducting other expenses.



1
 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Noel Whittaker’s take on the budget

Div 296 may mean your estate pays tax on assets your beneficiaries never receive

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why have Australian living standards 'fallen' and how do we fix it?

For the last few years there has been much talk of a 'cost-of-living' crisis in Australia and of 'falling living standards'. Lately this has flared up again with the pickup in inflation resulting in a renewed fall in real wages.

Will you run out of money in retirement?

Fear of running out has become a defining retirement anxiety. Why do some retirees die with substantial wealth while others deplete their nest egg? Evidence suggests the answer is more complicated than we think. 

Four options for an income investor’s next dollar

What if Australia’s golden age of dividends is ending? Rather than overhaul your portfolio, it may be worth considering where new capital can work harder. I discuss four income strategies and the trade-offs behind each.

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

The investment that sidesteps the new tax traps

Tax rules have changed, but many investors are still using yesterday’s strategies. Insurance bonds may offer advantages for those seeking greater control, tax efficiency and certainty about their wealth.

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Treasury’s latest CGT reform draft delivers a win for testamentary trusts and deceased estates, exempting estate-derived gains from the 30% floor. However, questions on death and divorce rollovers remain unresolved.

Latest Updates

Retirement

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

SMSF strategies

Who really loses from the SMSF borrowing ban?

The ban on borrowing to buy residential property inside a self-managed super fund was framed as closing a loophole for the wealthy. Yet ATO data suggests its effects may be felt more heavily on members with moderate balances.

Investment strategies

The investing rule that explains the next market crash

What if investment success depends less on picking the right assets and more on understanding the decisions of other investors? A principle borrowed from game theory offers a different perspective on markets.

Investment strategies

Gold: should you own the metal or the miners?

Gold is back in the headlines but investors may be asking the wrong question. Before deciding where prices are headed next, it's worth considering whether the investment you choose will deliver the outcome you're actually seeking.

Fixed interest

Global bonds markets are hiccupping

For decades, investors looked the other way as government debt ballooned. But a reckoning may be beginning. Bond markets are stirring and the consequences could reach far beyond markets into everyday life.

Property

Why investors are looking beyond traditional property sectors

A little-known corner of the property market may be quietly benefiting from powerful demographic and healthcare trends. Could this specialised sector offer investors something increasingly difficult to find: enduring demand?

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 6 months in

Is retirement really an identity crisis, or is something else at play? New insights challenge conventional thinking and reveal why some retirees struggle to fully embrace life after work.

Sponsors

Alliances

  • ASA-Logo-RGB-ActiveGreen-web.png

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.