Statecraft history may provide some insight into the world where China challenges US hegemony.
Why? Because many folks are concerned about a future with China, a non-democratic country, becoming a global power and possibly a new global hegemony. Western folks have only ever known western imperialism and have generally benefited from it.
In the western world, some view the rise of China with fear and distain, and historically these views are based purely on racist sentiments.
China is considered a threat to the world order and a challenge to US exceptionalism, so many are calling for the preparation for war and American actions including sanctions, tariffs and pulling back from Europe and the Middle East are consistent with moving to a war footing.
The idea that European/American society is an inherently superior civilisation is embedded in a range of ideologies stretching back over centuries. Until recently, these beliefs were embedded in European governments’ actions, and in more recent times in American government behaviour and the so called “US exceptionalism”.
The key question is whether China will act in the same manner as historical hegemonies. To answer this question, we need to consider both European (which includes the US, as it was a colonial project) and Chinese history.
The European approach to statecraft
European statecraft is based on state dominance, where states are competing with each other, and frequently at war.
State dominance takes three forms - economic, religious and military. All European empires, e.g. the Roman, Spanish, French, Portuguese and British empires have used these elements in their colonial pursuits. Similarly, the American empire has embraced this model, albeit with less focus on religion and more on spreading democracy and control over autocratic regimes, e.g. Saudi Arabia.
This European statecraft approach has meant that war became the normal state of being in Europe from about 500AD to the 1950s, and since WW2 the USA has been involved in the so called “forever wars” and coups.
China's approach to statecraft
China statecraft thinking applies a Confucianism approach which is a system of social and ethical philosophies, rather than religion-based philosophies.
Chinese statecraft is about internal order, and by and large China has had peaceful relations with its neighbours. For nearly 500 years – from 1358 (Ming Dynasty) to 1839 (first Opium war created by the British) – China did not have wars with its neighbours. Instead there were internal wars and power struggles.
The facts support the conclusion that external imperialism and colonialism are not part of the Chinese statecraft. Does that apply today? Some may argue it does, while others say China will act in the same manner as European style statecraft.
Geographically, China is boxed in by the Pacific Ocean to the east, Himalayas to the west, tropics in the south and the dry lands to the north. China has fragmented at times and then reunited. For most of the last 2000 years, China has been a centralised controlled state and isolated from the rest of the world.
Of course we do not know the future. However, we pose some questions below that readers may wish to consider in formulating their views about a future with China being a global power.
- Will China naturally have a different statecraft because of its lack of democratic history? Or will it simply adopt the approach of the Western countries?
- Will China’s millennia of Confucian-based statecraft – compared with Western statecraft where religion is an important element – lead to a different statecraft? Perhaps it will be a mixture of the two.
- Will China, having been isolated for hundreds of years until relatively recently, lean towards a different type of statecraft?
- Are the Confucian values so strong that it will override the natural imperialistic statecraft approach?
Michael McAlary is Founder, CEO and Managing Director of WealthMaker Financial Services, a family office that provides investment, financial planning and mortgage broking services. This article is for general information only and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.