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Monday, 20 September 2021
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There are plenty of voices on both sides of the inflation argument, but the ultimate impact of COVID should be deflationary. Australia is one of the last places to expect worrying signs of inflation rising.
In 1961, Australian women had 3.5 children on average but by 2018, this figure stood at just 1.7. Falling fertility creates a shift in demographics and the ratio of retirees to working-age people.
Susceptibility is the risk of severe illness or death if an individual contracts COVID-19. It shows how bad an outbreak could be by region and it will inform policy on relaxing restrictions.
The bushfire response shows we can be generous and compassionate, and we need to realise our species depends for its survival on a willingness to co-operate, not simply compete.
Understanding demographics is vital for successful planning and investing for the future. What is happening on population growth, ageing, natural increases, immigration and our role in Asia?
After test matches resumed in 1993, Australia held the upper hand and peaked at the bottom of the GFC. In stock markets, South Africa is edging it in US$ terms but killing it in local currencies.
It's not long ago when Australian bond rates were well above US bond rates, and now they are the same in the 10 years. Factors affecting Australian monetary policy will not mirror US rises through 2018.
The phrase 'Lucky Country' was coined to be pejorative, but Australia has managed to acquire wealth and income equality well beyond expectations bestowed on it by chance.
Asia's GDP exceeds North America and Europe combined, and its increasing economic power should be embraced by Australia as we become more a Eurasian society. Are we enlightened enough to grab the opportunities?
There's no doubt Australians love property, especially housing, and despite slowing economic growth and a lack of political leadership, the business sector continues to create Australian wealth and jobs.
Increases in Australian house prices are slowing but there are many reasons for an underlying support, but some locations for apartments will not do as well. Housing recovery continues in the US.
While the evidence points to Australia's housing market coming off the boil, prices are still being supported by Chinese families assisting their children in Australia to buy a house or apartment.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.