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Concerns about China's rise to power seem overblown

Statecraft history may provide some insight into the world where China challenges US hegemony. 

Why? Because many folks are concerned about a future with China, a non-democratic country, becoming a global power and possibly a new global hegemony. Western folks have only ever known western imperialism and have generally benefited from it.

In the western world, some view the rise of China with fear and distain, and historically these views are based purely on racist sentiments.

China is considered a threat to the world order and a challenge to US exceptionalism, so many are calling for the preparation for war and American actions including sanctions, tariffs and pulling back from Europe and the Middle East are consistent with moving to a war footing. 

The idea that European/American society is an inherently superior civilisation is embedded in a range of ideologies stretching back over centuries. Until recently, these beliefs were embedded in European governments’ actions, and in more recent times in American government behaviour and the so called “US exceptionalism”.

The key question is whether China will act in the same manner as historical hegemonies. To answer this question, we need to consider both European (which includes the US, as it was a colonial project) and Chinese history.

The European approach to statecraft

European statecraft is based on state dominance, where states are competing with each other, and frequently at war. 

State dominance takes three forms - economic, religious and military. All European empires, e.g. the Roman, Spanish, French, Portuguese and British empires have used these elements in their colonial pursuits. Similarly, the American empire has embraced this model, albeit with less focus on religion and more on spreading democracy and control over autocratic regimes, e.g. Saudi Arabia. 

This European statecraft approach has meant that war became the normal state of being in Europe from about 500AD to the 1950s, and since WW2 the USA has been involved in the so called “forever wars” and coups.

China's approach to statecraft

China statecraft thinking applies a Confucianism approach which is a system of social and ethical philosophies, rather than religion-based philosophies. 

Chinese statecraft is about internal order, and by and large China has had peaceful relations with its neighbours. For nearly 500 years – from 1358 (Ming Dynasty) to 1839 (first Opium war created by the British) – China did not have wars with its neighbours. Instead there were internal wars and power struggles.

The facts support the conclusion that external imperialism and colonialism are not part of the Chinese statecraft. Does that apply today? Some may argue it does, while others say China will act in the same manner as European style statecraft.

Geographically, China is boxed in by the Pacific Ocean to the east, Himalayas to the west, tropics in the south and the dry lands to the north. China has fragmented at times and then reunited. For most of the last 2000 years, China has been a centralised controlled state and isolated from the rest of the world.

Of course we do not know the future. However, we pose some questions below that readers may wish to consider in formulating their views about a future with China being a global power.

  1. Will China naturally have a different statecraft because of its lack of democratic history? Or will it simply adopt the approach of the Western countries?
  2. Will China’s millennia of Confucian-based statecraft – compared with Western statecraft where religion is an important element – lead to a different statecraft? Perhaps it will be a mixture of the two.
  3. Will China, having been isolated for hundreds of years until relatively recently, lean towards a different type of statecraft?
  4. Are the Confucian values so strong that it will override the natural imperialistic statecraft approach?

 

Michael McAlary is Founder, CEO and Managing Director of WealthMaker Financial Services, a family office that provides investment, financial planning and mortgage broking services. This article is for general information only and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

 

9 Comments
Hampton
June 26, 2025

Dudley ---Thanks for correcting my error. I accept that "murders" may have not been sent, but how about "child convicts" both male and female, as young as 10, were sent to the penal colony of Australia.
The Chinese have used opium for centuries for "medicinal" purpose, but the British made it available to everyone in the 1800s, and what a roaring trade.
"The Chinese have gone European ----" The Chinese have retain their system of Govt for over 4-5000 yrs of civilization and do not want or need the recent (last 2000yrs) European "Democratic" style of Govt. or the recent "Ruled Based Order"

Maurice Barnes
June 22, 2025

The writer poses interesting questions for debate as is clearly the case in the variety of remarks thus far contributed.

Ross
June 18, 2025

This article is naive.

James
June 13, 2025

Classic left wing rubbish. It attacks the west for being racist and imperialist, yet it ignores the last 75 years of the history of China under communist rule. It raves about the beauty of confucism, implying that fatally flawed Marxist theology has had little impact on Chines behaviour. And where is the analysis of Chairman Xi, the dictator who currently has 94 million subservient members of the CCP.
A better question for readers; since 1949 how many people in China have died prematurely due to forced labour, execution, or appalling social policy (eg: the great leap forward)? My guess is somewhere north of 50 million.
No cause for alarm?

Dudley
June 16, 2025

"50 million":

Google AI question:
'Since 1949 how many Chinese have died prematurely?'
Reply:
'a reasonable range for deaths related to political campaigns and famine is between 30 and 70 million.'

CoVID ignored.

Jim
June 12, 2025

Excellent article Michael - and posing very relevant questions.
The 1800's and early 1900s were a humiliating time for China as it acceded to European incursions along its coast with 'Agreements' along the lines of what the UK had over Hong Kong. Little wonder that modern day China's leadership resolves to never be in that position again - and to 'right any wrongs' that might still exist (Taiwan). With current economic pressures in CN, all the more reason to perhaps distract the Chinese population and to 'lay the blame' at the feet of western imperialists.
If CN does carry through with an attempt to 'incorporate' Taiwan - it will only be when they are convinced that the West would be unsuccessful in preventing a successful takeover. A complex calculus.

John
June 12, 2025

A simple way to consider China's ambitions is to look at how it treats it neighbours. Disputes with India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and Taiwan are all instructive. The way it has treated Australian exports is another marker. China's "allies" include other aggressive countries, North Korea, Russia and Iran. With friends like these, who needs enemies.

Hampton Mar
June 25, 2025

I have no problem with John’s description of how China treats its neighbours. But look a little further and see how the Europeans (whites) democratic society and its “rules- based order” treat the world in general. Dumping their poor unwanted souls (thieves, murders etc) into a foreign land-Australia. Decimate the indigenous people of the US, Canada and took their land. Colonise India, Papua New Gunea, Malaya, Burma, New Caledonia, Nigeria, Algeria, Sth Africa, Botswana, Niger, Mali, Ethiopia, Senegal, Uganda and treat the indigenous population as 2nd class citizen and stole their minerals etc. These countries are not even their neighhours. Taught the Chinese to smoke opium and now blame them for producing and exporting Fentanyl. Need I say more.
Give me the Chinese system as compared to the European system of the last 200 years. Don’t throw stones when you live in a glass house

Dudley
June 26, 2025

"Dumping their poor unwanted souls (thieves, murders etc) into a foreign land-Australia":
Only gentlethieves transported, saved from deadly dungeons. Murderers murdered legally, and only after 1830 were commutation sentence murders transported.

"Taught the Chinese to smoke opium":
Facilitated:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_opium_in_China

"Give me the Chinese system as compared to the European system of the last 200 years":
The Chinese have gone European along with much else of the world. Not quite shaken Emperorism.

 

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