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Monday, 25 May 2020
Recently trending Buffett's meeting takeaway: extreme cautionWelcome to Firstlinks Edition 356The vibe of future returns: tell ‘em they’re dreamin’Baseline outlook for economic recovery is too optimistic Retiree spending patterns differ from most expectations
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This detailed analysis of infections, deaths, drugs and vaccines includes an optimistic scenario: perhaps US and Australian infection numbers will peak in early to mid-April with a decline after.
A million Australians live overseas, and many forget the complexities that can arise in their financial affairs. Watch in particular for changing tax status, as in this US example.
It might be intuitive to think shares are more resilient to the effects of inflation than other asset classes, but as Warren Buffett warned in 1977, it could work the other way.
* One quarter of Americans surveyed couldn't say whether $100 earning 2% interest per year would grow to more than $102, less than $102 or exactly $102 after five years.
Warren Buffett's annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway showed he has not been 'investing while others are fearful' during the crisis. lt's a reminder to take caution and preserve cash.
Few investors are as influential as Warren Buffett, although for the moment, the market is ignoring his caution. The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway revealed Buffett did not use the heavy market falls in February to buy shares. Rather than 'buy when others are fearful', he was a net seller of US$6 billion for the quarter, disposing of all airline shares. Berkshire is sitting on US$137 billion in cash, suggesting he expects better buying opportunities to come.
It's the vibe, but not much else. Super balance calculations default to earnings rates of 7.5%, but that's in the past. Global experts suggest financial plans are now dreaming at this level.
We cannot throw our hands up in the air and say 'this time around, it's simply too hard'. Having no macro view is unhelpful, but many of the baseline scenarios are overly optimistic, says the former CEO of Westpac and now Chairman of Chi-X Australia.
A study of actual spending habits shows retirees have a faster-than-expected drop-off in spending in later years, casting doubts on financial plans that assume increasing expenditure over time.
There is a remarkable concentration similarity between the Australian and US stock markets that has delivered poor results for Australians and great results for Americans (and global investors). As the share prices of five Australian banks have tanked, the prices of five US technology companies have surged. Each group now represents 20% of their respective indexes, but the journey has been a disaster for many Australians.