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1 January 2026
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Most asset classes haven't fully adjusted to the sharp interest rate rises. Prices of stocks, housing and commercial property need to fall for them to provide attractive yields compared with risk-free government bonds.
This detailed analysis of infections, deaths, drugs and vaccines includes an optimistic scenario: perhaps US and Australian infection numbers will peak in early to mid-April with a decline after.
The threat of Labor denying franking credit refunds led some investors to sell hybrids, widening their margins, which created investment opportunities for those willing to look past the immediate announcement.
Many investors who hold offshore securities do not realise that much of the return comes from the FX hedge rather than the asset itself. And now US rates have risen, the benefit for Aussies has turned around.
While property and equity markets remain expensive by historical standards, yields achievable relative to risk remain strong in the hybrid market, notwithstanding recent upticks in price.
Factors relating to technical adjustments, timing of bank reporting and offshore influences have created wider spreads on bonds and hybrids which should mean revert in time.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.
What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.
What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.
Summer is a great time to catch up on a good book. Here is a list of books on leadership, investing, and well-being for those looking to learn, reflect, and gain inspiration over the holiday season.