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7 May 2026
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It’s been a volatile couple of months in markets with the ongoing conflict in Iran. For Australian private credit investors, however, large exposures to real estate lending could mean the worst is yet to come.
Rising oil prices and inflation pushed Australian yields higher. Markets expect further tightening, but weaker growth may reverse rates. Locking income and maintaining duration is a sound strategy for widening credit spreads.
As credit spreads normalised through 2025, yield‑hungry investors have turned to leverage for high returns, uncomfortably echoing pre‑GFC behaviours. Investors need to be careful to understand the true risk‑return trade‑off.
‘Hyperscalers’ including Google, Meta and Microsoft are fuelling an unprecedented surge in equity and debt issuance to bankroll massive AI-driven capital expenditure. History shows this isn't without risk.
Global credit markets face a fundamental shift as US dollar dominance wanes. Australian investment-grade credit, with attractive spreads and stability, may emerge as a key beneficiary in this structural capital reallocation.
Following on from the strong performance of global investment grade credit in 2023, the Australian credit market is emerging as a great diversifier and alternative to investing in other ‘safe haven’ asset classes.
Global equity markets have grown more correlated due to globalization, but this trend may reverse which boosts the benefits of cross-country diversification.
Research highlights the significant impact of excluding housing income from income inequality analysis in Australia, arguing for the inclusion of imputed rent and capital gains to provide a more accurate picture.
The lithium rally mirrors the early-2010s tech stock surge, with demand set to double by 2030. Supply has been slow to respond, creating a market deficit for future tech like humanoid robotics and solid-state batteries.
Increasing our official cash rate contrasts with almost every other developed country in the world. Canada, UK, Europe, and USA, so far, have not reversed recent cuts while their inflation issues appear to be contained.
Around the world, democracy as a system of government is backsliding. After more than 50 years of liberal democracy in ascendancy, democratic progress plateaued around the turn of the century and is now going backwards.
Financial commentators await the federal budget with focus on debt and deficit. 'Off-budget' accounting alters the fiscal picture with unseen programs.
Ashley Owen's abridged monthly snapshot uncovers what is front of mind for investors around the world and his view on the likely outcome of the stand-off in the Middle East.