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17 June 2026
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It’s been a volatile couple of months in markets with the ongoing conflict in Iran. For Australian private credit investors, however, large exposures to real estate lending could mean the worst is yet to come.
Rising oil prices and inflation pushed Australian yields higher. Markets expect further tightening, but weaker growth may reverse rates. Locking income and maintaining duration is a sound strategy for widening credit spreads.
As credit spreads normalised through 2025, yield‑hungry investors have turned to leverage for high returns, uncomfortably echoing pre‑GFC behaviours. Investors need to be careful to understand the true risk‑return trade‑off.
‘Hyperscalers’ including Google, Meta and Microsoft are fuelling an unprecedented surge in equity and debt issuance to bankroll massive AI-driven capital expenditure. History shows this isn't without risk.
Global credit markets face a fundamental shift as US dollar dominance wanes. Australian investment-grade credit, with attractive spreads and stability, may emerge as a key beneficiary in this structural capital reallocation.
Following on from the strong performance of global investment grade credit in 2023, the Australian credit market is emerging as a great diversifier and alternative to investing in other ‘safe haven’ asset classes.
Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.
Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.
Extreme wealth concentration is no longer just a side effect of growth. As inequality deepens, its consequences are shifting from a social concern to a broader threat to economic stability and democratic resilience.
AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.
The 2026 budget has reignited Australia’s tax reform debate, but more work remains. Beneath the surface lies a harder question: what structural reforms are needed to make the country's tax system fit for the future?
The Budget's negative gearing changes defer deductions rather than deny them, yet a worked example shows quarantining can halve the tax benefit's present value for buyers of established dwellings.
In just four years, Australia's private capital landscape has transformed. We are seeing changes across who deploys capital, how deals are structured and why new platforms and investor pathways are rapidly emerging.