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Home / Author: Shane Oliver

Shane Oliver

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

7 key charts on the state of the Australian property market

The Australian property market stirs fierce debate - often bullish optimism versus crash predictions. But beyond the noise, seven charts reveal what's really driving prices and the outlook for residential real estate.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

US election implications for investors and Australia

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes, trade wars and policy uncertainty. Here's what it means for markets going forward.

Will house prices crash?

Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.

The 9 most important things I've learned about investing over 40 years

The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.

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SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: The CGT changes don’t impact super but what about Div 296 tax decisions?

New CGT rules could tip the scales in the super vs non-super debate. For those facing the Division 296 tax, the case for withdrawing has gotten more complex. A "comparison rate" tool may help assess decisions.

Planning

Testamentary trusts post-budget: Estate planning, tax reform and the ‘death tax’ debate

Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.

Taxation

Income tax and bracket creep

Examining how five "tax cuts" stack up against bracket creep. Why offsets and incremental changes may do little to ease rising average tax burdens, compared to structural reform through indexation over time.  

Exchange traded products

The limits of a quality investing approach in Australia

Quality strategies shine globally, but Australia's concentrated market tells a different story. Limited diversification and sector dominance can constrain the defensive outcomes investors have seen in broader markets.

Investment strategies

Balancing opportunity and complexity

As private markets expand, investors face a growing mix of structures, a stabilising private equity cycle and uneven AI disruption. Fresh questions are being raised about where the real opportunities now sit.

Investment strategies

Why strong returns matter as much as generosity

As EOFY approaches, structured giving offers a tax-effective way to support charities, while allowing donations to grow over time and play a longer-term role in family wealth and legacy planning outcomes.

Investment strategies

The most important investment decision you’ll ever make

Stock picking often gets the spotlight, but research shows asset allocation explains the vast majority of long‑term returns. Understanding your mix of growth and defensive assets is the real key to investment success.

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