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Shane Oliver

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

7 key charts on the state of the Australian property market

The Australian property market stirs fierce debate - often bullish optimism versus crash predictions. But beyond the noise, seven charts reveal what's really driving prices and the outlook for residential real estate.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

US election implications for investors and Australia

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes, trade wars and policy uncertainty. Here's what it means for markets going forward.

Will house prices crash?

Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.

The 9 most important things I've learned about investing over 40 years

The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

High quality businesses are on sale

Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.

Investment strategies

The whirlwind is upon us

Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.

Strategy

Inequality destabilises economies

Extreme wealth concentration is no longer just a side effect of growth. As inequality deepens, its consequences are shifting from a social concern to a broader threat to economic stability and democratic resilience.

Investment strategies

Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?

AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.

Taxation

Budget tax changes only scratch the surface. Here are 4 reforms Australia needs next

The 2026 budget has reignited Australia’s tax reform debate, but more work remains. Beneath the surface lies a harder question: what structural reforms are needed to make the country's tax system fit for the future?

Taxation

Negative gearing: quarantined, not killed

The Budget's negative gearing changes defer deductions rather than deny them, yet a worked example shows quarantining can halve the tax benefit's present value for buyers of established dwellings.

Investment strategies

Family offices have quietly taken over Australian private capital

In just four years, Australia's private capital landscape has transformed. We are seeing changes across who deploys capital, how deals are structured and why new platforms and investor pathways are rapidly emerging.

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