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Tuesday, 21 September 2021
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Long-term oil price projections and currency appreciation make the current valuations of many Australian companies look overly optimistic. Extra supply can be turned on quickly when prices start to rise.
US shale oil producers and the combined alliance of OPEC and Russia need one another to maintain the 'sweet spot' in oil sector dynamics and profitability into the future.
The so-called oil supply problem is the result of oil-producing countries deciding what to produce, but the market has relatively little spare capacity. There's a short-term power play underway by the lower-cost producers.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.