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Tuesday, 25 January 2022
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Bank hybrids produced excellent returns in the last year and the biggest lesson from March 2020 is that many investors don’t understand the structures, and in a crisis, they panic first and think later.
Hybrids deliver returns comparable with equities over the long term with less volatility, which makes the risk-adjusted return and lack of correlation to equities an attractive characteristic in a diversified portfolio.
Most fund managers had a strong year in FY2018, but past bumper years when MTAA invested heavily in so called 'low risk' illiquid assets provide a warning in less fortuitous markets.
Many retail investors have turned to unrated or high-yield corporate bonds in recent years, but conditions have been favourable. Watch for the once-a-decade spikes in default rates.
The implications for hybrids, bank margins and bank fees from the increase in the risk-weighting of residential mortgages and learning our banks are not top quartile among the capital levels of global banks.
Until recently, institutional investors did not buy many bank hybrids, leaving issue size and margins subject to retail demand. But retail investors, including SMSFs, no longer have the market to themselves.
There are thousands of different indexes, and they are not all diversified and broadly-based. Watch for concentration risk in sectors and companies, and know the underlying assets in case liquidity is needed.
It is easy to feel like an investing genius over the last 10 years, with most asset classes making wonderful gains. But if there's a setback, companies like Reece, ARB, Cochlear, REA Group and CSL will recover best.
In the 11th year of a bull market, near the end of the cycle, some type of correction is likely. Underneath is solid, healthy and underpinned by strong earnings growth, but there's less room for mistakes.
In 2021, the gold price failed to sustain its strong rise since 2018, although it recovered after early losses. But where does gold sit in a world of inflation, rising rates and a competitor like Bitcoin?
In a sentence or two, global experts across many fields are asked to summarise the biggest surprise of 2021, and enduring challenges into 2022. It's a short and sweet view of the changes we are all facing.
In 2021, sharemarket gains supported record levels of capital raisings and IPOs in Australia. The range of deals listed here shows the maturity of the local market in providing equity capital.
Governments and investors have been complacent about the build up of debt, but at some level, a ceiling exists. Are we near yet? Trouble is brewing, especially in the eurozone and emerging countries.