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12 June 2025
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As long as the banks have no desire to pay up for term deposit funding - which looks likely for a while yet - investors will continue to pay a premium for the higher yielding, but riskier hybrid instrument.
Major changes are underway in the methods used to distribute bank hybrids. Investor cannot rely on the previous ways of buying hybrids at IPO and now must be 'sophisticated', react quickly and know a broker.
During the GFC, bank hybrids fell heavily as bank equity sold off, but in the last dozen years, hybrids rules have changed and the market seems to accept hybrids are more resilient. What does the price data show?
What is APRA worried about? Most mortgagees can easily absorb increases in interest rates without posing a systemic threat to the banking system. Housing lending is a relatively risk-free activity for banks.
The GFC provided asset managers with a source of behavioural data they could only dream of. However, no amount of modelling can capture the full panic that some investors experience.
Hybrids are riskier than term deposits but investors are rewarded for the risk. Here is a simple way to consider if the reward is sufficient as the hybrid approaches an expected call date.
The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.
There is an alternative, simpler approach which could be used to mitigate some of the difficulties that the proposed super tax has for holders of large assets such as properties, businesses and farms in SMSFs.
Here's a detailed look at how current valuations and profit forecasts for the S&P 500 stack up versus history. The answer? Both seem excessive, making the market vulnerable to a correction or worse.
A recent ruling could change the tax payable by beneficiaries of family trusts. If the ATO has previously demanded extra payments on unpaid present entitlements in your family group, you should watch this space.
Subdividing can offer a lucrative first step into property development. Yet it comes with legal, planning and unexpected tax considerations that should be understood from an early stage to avoid surprises.
Though it may feel like this time is different, markets have shown resilience throughout history when confronted by wars, pandemics and other crises. In many cases, the best course of action has been none at all.
China has always managed its affairs in a very different way to Western countries and empires. For those concerned about China's rise as a global power, the big question is whether this approach could change.