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Rob Arnott

History lessons: How ‘transitory’ is inflation?

There's bad news for those who believe current inflation is transitory: history suggests once inflation peaks above 8%, as the US and much of Europe did this year, it takes a median 10 years to get the rate back to 3%.

No excuses: Plan now for recession

The signs of a coming recession are building, especially in the US. In personal and business decisions, it's time to be more conservative and engage in risk management until some of the uncertainty is resolved. 

Piketty's best seller: Bleak House, not Balzac

Thomas Piketty’s 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century' stunned the publishing world when it reached number one on the Amazon best seller list. What lessons for today can we learn from Dickens, Austen and Balzac?

Mind the (expectations) gap: demographic trends and GDP

If we expect government policies to deliver implausible growth when a demographic tailwind has become a headwind, we'll have temporary ‘growth’ with debt-financed consumption, with longer term adverse consequences.

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Economy

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

Australia’s generous housing subsidies face mounting political risk

Canada’s leader Mark Carney has spoken of a rupture in the rules based system that has governed the world since 1945. That rupture means nations like Australia will need to boost defence spending and find savings elsewhere.

Shares

Finding yield on the ASX

With ASX dividend yields now below government bond yields, investors face an upside-down market where income is scarce, growth is muted, and careful selection of bond-like stocks has never mattered more.

Investment strategies

Digging for value among ASX miners

ASX miners are back in favour after playing second fiddle to banks for years. Is it too late to get in? Here are some thoughts on the large caps such as BHP and Rio, and the hot gold mining sector.

Gold

Gold: Is it time to be greedy or fearful?

Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play. 

Investment strategies

Asia in 2026: Riding AI, reform and a shifting global order

Tariff turmoil tested Asia, but AI leadership, policy easing and reform momentum are restoring investor confidence and strengthening the region’s outlook for 2026. 

Investment strategies

Investors beware: Bull markets don’t last forever

New research explains why high valuations, low dividends and bullish sentiment rarely coexist with strong long-term returns after extended bull markets. 

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