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Rob Arnott

History lessons: How ‘transitory’ is inflation?

There's bad news for those who believe current inflation is transitory: history suggests once inflation peaks above 8%, as the US and much of Europe did this year, it takes a median 10 years to get the rate back to 3%.

No excuses: Plan now for recession

The signs of a coming recession are building, especially in the US. In personal and business decisions, it's time to be more conservative and engage in risk management until some of the uncertainty is resolved. 

Piketty's best seller: Bleak House, not Balzac

Thomas Piketty’s 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century' stunned the publishing world when it reached number one on the Amazon best seller list. What lessons for today can we learn from Dickens, Austen and Balzac?

Mind the (expectations) gap: demographic trends and GDP

If we expect government policies to deliver implausible growth when a demographic tailwind has become a headwind, we'll have temporary ‘growth’ with debt-financed consumption, with longer term adverse consequences.

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Planning

Does your will qualify for the discretionary testamentary trust exemption?

Treasury has confirmed the exemption many families were hoping for. But buried in the fine print are two conditions that could leave some wills on the wrong side of the exemption, despite years of careful planning. 

Lithium's latest drop and what it means for ASX investors

Lithium's latest sell-off has punished ASX miners as prices remain hostage to shifting expectations. The key challenge is navigating a market prone to extreme volatility despite a strong case for the long-term demand outlook.

Investment strategies

CGT reform and fund turnover: who really feels the impact?

The implications of CGT reform are far and wide. As the 50% discount gives way to inflation indexation, turnover and return profiles may become critical drivers of after-tax performance. Some strategies face a far greater hit. 

Superannuation

Super was built for a very different Australia

Our retirement system was built around assumptions that no longer hold. Lower homeownership, longer lifespans and changing expectations are exposing cracks that policymakers and super funds need to address. 

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 4 months in

Many people spend years planning financially for retirement but little time preparing for what comes next. Four months in, here are the surprising lessons i've learnt on finding purpose, social connection and healthy habits. 

Investment strategies

After the Budget, Australia needs its own definition of quality

As tax reforms reshape investment incentives, investors should rethink what quality investing means in the uniquely concentrated Australian market, where traditional frameworks may not translate as effectively.

Datacenters are the new shale oil

Why are tech giants pouring billions into datacentres when the economics look questionable? The most dangerous words in investing may be: "everyone else is doing it". Today's AI boom has striking parallels with the shale bust.

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