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Rob Arnott

History lessons: How ‘transitory’ is inflation?

There's bad news for those who believe current inflation is transitory: history suggests once inflation peaks above 8%, as the US and much of Europe did this year, it takes a median 10 years to get the rate back to 3%.

No excuses: Plan now for recession

The signs of a coming recession are building, especially in the US. In personal and business decisions, it's time to be more conservative and engage in risk management until some of the uncertainty is resolved. 

Piketty's best seller: Bleak House, not Balzac

Thomas Piketty’s 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century' stunned the publishing world when it reached number one on the Amazon best seller list. What lessons for today can we learn from Dickens, Austen and Balzac?

Mind the (expectations) gap: demographic trends and GDP

If we expect government policies to deliver implausible growth when a demographic tailwind has become a headwind, we'll have temporary ‘growth’ with debt-financed consumption, with longer term adverse consequences.

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Economy

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Investment strategies

History says US market outperformance versus Australia will turn

Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.

Investment strategies

Announcing the X-Factor for 2025

What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.

Economy

The illusion of progress

What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.

Strategy

Our favourite summer reads

Summer is a great time to catch up on a good book. Here is a list of books on leadership, investing, and well-being for those looking to learn, reflect, and gain inspiration over the holiday season.

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