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30 April 2025

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Edition: 424

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 424 with weekend update

  • 9 September 2021
  • 18

Wet streets cause rain. The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is a name created by writer Michael Crichton after he realised that everything he read or heard in the media was wrong when he had direct personal knowledge or expertise on the subject. He surmised that everything else is probably wrong as well, and financial markets are no exception.

How dot plots and tiny triangles shape our investments

Dots and dashes have been part of the shape of financial markets for 100 years, and the 'dot plot' is more important than ever. But what are those tiny triangles in the newspaper and are there any lessons from them?

Longest positive run for Australian shares since WWII

The long current positive run for the Australian stock market is unusual but not a warning of imminent demise. Previous long positive runs were not all followed by corrections but this one may end this month.

When will I retire? The data tells the story

Based on the latest data, men aged 45 now are expected to retire at age 65.2 and women were expected to retire almost one year earlier at 64.3. The expected retirement ages are moving out for men more than women.

Reality may be worse than the Intergenerational Report expects

The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.

Inflation? Nothing (much) to see here

There are plenty of voices on both sides of the inflation argument, but the ultimate impact of COVID should be deflationary. Australia is one of the last places to expect worrying signs of inflation rising.

Michael Lewis on pandemics and Nigel Inkster on technology

Book reviews: Michael Lewis’ stranger-than-fiction take on how America’s public health mechanisms failed during Covid-19, and Nigel Inkster’s look at China, America and the struggle for technological supremacy.

Thou shalt not covet … thy neighbour’s house

Do what you want with your estate but there can be challenges in a court. Older people are vulnerable and they can tell people what they want to hear, but carers can also be successful over family beneficiaries.

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Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Pros and cons of Labor's home batteries scheme

Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

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