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Edition: 424

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 424 with weekend update

  • 9 September 2021
  • 18

Wet streets cause rain. The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is a name created by writer Michael Crichton after he realised that everything he read or heard in the media was wrong when he had direct personal knowledge or expertise on the subject. He surmised that everything else is probably wrong as well, and financial markets are no exception.

How dot plots and tiny triangles shape our investments

Dots and dashes have been part of the shape of financial markets for 100 years, and the 'dot plot' is more important than ever. But what are those tiny triangles in the newspaper and are there any lessons from them?

Longest positive run for Australian shares since WWII

The long current positive run for the Australian stock market is unusual but not a warning of imminent demise. Previous long positive runs were not all followed by corrections but this one may end this month.

When will I retire? The data tells the story

Based on the latest data, men aged 45 now are expected to retire at age 65.2 and women were expected to retire almost one year earlier at 64.3. The expected retirement ages are moving out for men more than women.

Reality may be worse than the Intergenerational Report expects

The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.

Inflation? Nothing (much) to see here

There are plenty of voices on both sides of the inflation argument, but the ultimate impact of COVID should be deflationary. Australia is one of the last places to expect worrying signs of inflation rising.

Michael Lewis on pandemics and Nigel Inkster on technology

Book reviews: Michael Lewis’ stranger-than-fiction take on how America’s public health mechanisms failed during Covid-19, and Nigel Inkster’s look at China, America and the struggle for technological supremacy.

Thou shalt not covet … thy neighbour’s house

Do what you want with your estate but there can be challenges in a court. Older people are vulnerable and they can tell people what they want to hear, but carers can also be successful over family beneficiaries.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

3 ways to defuse intergenerational anger

With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.

Navigating the next stage of life in retirement

Retirement planning is more than just saving enough money. Long-term care needs, housing choices, and social networks are just as critical for a happy and enjoyable life.

The missing 30%: how LIC returns are understated, and why it matters

The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.

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