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Edition: 476

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 476 with weekend update

  • 22 September 2022
  • 9

One of the downsides of being a financial newsletter and media junkie is reading the same material over and over again. Every month, fund managers deliver reports to investors, and it's as if they subscribe to the same AI programme, with a heavy focus on the short term and central bank musings.

Readers back mining tax and gas reserve but not Stage 3

Over 800 responses and thousands of comments is great feedback. Readers of Firstlinks hold strong opinions on gas, taxes, inflation, child care and cost-of-living concessions, and now the Governor is buying in.

Dividends strong as some things change, some stay the same

With inflation above 6%, the real value of term deposits is falling rapidly, and some retirees may be shocked how quickly they qualify for and rely on the age pension. Meanwhile, the outlook for dividends is good.

The wealth-destroying impact of inflation

Since 1980, inflation eroded 81% of purchasing power. $100,000 then can now buy only $19,000 worth of goods and services. The longer money must last, the more we need ‘growth’ assets with inflation protection.

The most-challenging year to retire in recent history

Economic surprises like an inflationary spike, slow growth and recession can lead to a swift market downturn, further complicating the ability of retirees to preserve capital while taking income.

Three steps for navigating the tougher road ahead

We are in a new thesis and a regime change. Central banks previously supported asset prices but now the focus is on beating inflation. Investors need new strategies to adapt to the different conditions ahead.

In portfolio construction, actions speak louder than words

Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.

Stagflation is underrated in the shifting economic narrative

It might not look this way at the moment, but secular stagflation, when the economy produces underemployment, low inflation, and low real and nominal interest rates, is more likely than the market is expecting. 

Most viewed in recent weeks

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

The hidden property empire of Australia’s politicians

With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.

Preparing for aged care

Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.

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