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6 July 2025
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A new capital cycle is upon us and instead of funding dividends and buybacks, many companies are funding tangible projects. This could result in a whole different set of stock market winners and losers.
DeepSeek has surprised investors, but it shouldn't: it's part of a normal capital cycle. Big tech companies have made a lot of money, which attracts capital and competition, and eventually hurts returns and incumbent share prices.
Less government involvement in the economy and markets is long overdue. But investors need to consider what a reduced government role may mean for the profitability of businesses that are unable to offset rising cost pressures.
The world is entering a higher cost environment which will hit the profits of companies in many sectors. A key beneficiary will be commodities, where supply shortages are meeting increasing demand from AI and green energy.
As the world shifts away from one of artificially suppressed interest rates and cheap manufacturing, investors will need to carefully consider how companies are positioned to navigate the new higher-cost paradigm.
While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains.
An ANU study has found that families with at least one super balance over $3 million have average wealth exceeding $19 million - suggesting most are well placed to absorb taxes on unrealised capital gains.
SMSFs have managed to match, or even outperform, larger super funds despite adopting more conservative investment strategies. This looks at how they've done it - and the potential policy implications.
Stockland’s development chief discusses supply constraints, government initiatives and the impact of Japanese-owned homebuilders on the industry. He also talks of green shoots in a troubled property market.
As the US debt ceiling looms, the usual warnings about a potential crash in bond and equity markets have started to appear. Investors can take confidence from history but should keep an eye on two main indicators.
US mega-cap tech stocks have dominated recent returns - but is familiarity distorting judgement? Like the Monty Hall problem, investing success often comes from switching when it feels hardest to do so.
How does a strategy built around systematically buying-and-holding a basket of the market's biggest losers perform? It turns out pretty well, so why don't more investors do it?