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22 October 2024
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The world is entering a higher cost environment which will hit the profits of companies in many sectors. A key beneficiary will be commodities, where supply shortages are meeting increasing demand from AI and green energy.
As the world shifts away from one of artificially suppressed interest rates and cheap manufacturing, investors will need to carefully consider how companies are positioned to navigate the new higher-cost paradigm.
While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.
How have so many wealthy families through history managed to squander their fortunes? This looks at the lessons from these families and offers several solutions to making and keeping money over the long-term.
There are well over 800,000 family trusts in Australia, controlling more than $3 trillion of assets. Here's a guide on whether a family trust may have a place in your individual investment strategy.
The complexion of a stock market is ever-changing, with companies coming and going. But what happens to indexes, and the ETFs that use them as benchmarks, when a company is removed because of a merger or acquisition?
Investors remain fixated on stocks exposed to megatrends like AI and digitisation. Another less appreciated asset class offers significant structural growth without the excessive valuations that usually come with it.
Ancient Stoic philosophers had an idea called 'premeditatio malorum', that involves considering some of the worst things that can happen to you as a way of immunising yourself against them. It can be a useful tool for investors too.
It isn't too late for investors to own bonds and take advantage of this early stage of the rate-cutting cycle. What's more, bonds are regaining their ability to be a genuine diversifier within portfolios.
US rate cuts, low starting valuations and an uptick in global capex are just some of the tailwinds behind emerging markets. A value approach can help investors grasp growth opportunities without overstretching.