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1 December 2023
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The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.
Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.
The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and it's an apt metaphor for investment choices. In 2021, as investors hunted in the bush for decent returns, demand overwhelmed supply. Cash is the bird in the hand.
REITs come in many forms and the impact of inflation varies by the type of inflation and the REIT subcategory. Some trends, such as the end of 'just in time' and greater power of labour, have a widespread impact.
Many ASX success stories – like JB Hi-Fi, Lovisa, and AUB – have followed one of two strategies: rolling out single store formats nationwide or consolidating fragmented industries. Here are the secrets behind these business models.
With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.
APRA's objections to hybrids are misplaced. If the regulator wants more safety in our banking system, it will come at the expense of effectiveness, and that's why wholesale changes to the hybrid market are unlikely.
Typically, higher interest rates are associated with lower share market valuations, but not always and the relationship hasn’t been that strong over the long term. Company fundamentals will matter more over the next few years.
Harry Markowitz said that “diversification is the only free lunch in investing” as holding a broader range of assets can result in better returns without assuming more risk. This has become accepted wisdom - but it isn't true.
China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of many Asian economies’ strong growth momentum in the past year. But heading into 2024, Asia's growth story should reignite.
Charter Hall's Steven Bennett talks through commercial property's challenges and opportunities, Schroders' Rainer Ender on private equity's bright spots, and Peter Warnes on how RBA hawkishness will impact rates and the economy.