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20 April 2024
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While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.
Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.
The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and it's an apt metaphor for investment choices. In 2021, as investors hunted in the bush for decent returns, demand overwhelmed supply. Cash is the bird in the hand.
Recently, I compiled a list of ASX stocks that you could buy and hold forever. Here’s a follow-up list of US stocks that you could own indefinitely, including well-known names like Microsoft, as well as lesser-known gems.
The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.
Baby boomers will account for a third of population growth between 2024 and 2029, making this generation the biggest age-related growth sector over this period. They will shape the housing market with their unique preferences.
The surviving spouse has a lot to think about when a member of an SMSF dies. While it pays to understand the options quickly, often they’re best served by moving a little more slowly before making final decisions.
Your author prematurely advocated investing in small caps almost 12 months ago. Since then, the investment landscape has changed, and there are even more reasons to believe small caps are likely to outperform going forward.
Since Federation, reforms to our tax system have proven difficult. Yet they're too important to leave in the too-hard basket, and here's a look at the key ingredients that make a tax reform exercise work, or not.
AI is affecting ever expanding fields of human activity, and the way we invest is no exception. Here's how investors, advisors and investment managers can better prepare to manage the opportunities and risks that come with AI.