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18 June 2026
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Cyclical stocks surge in upswings but falter in downturns. Compounders - reliable, scalable, resilient businesses - offer smoother, superior returns over the full investment cycle for patient investors.
Technological leaps - from air travel to computing - has enriched society but squeezed margins. As AI accelerates, investors must separate progress from profitability to avoid repeating past mistakes.
A new capital cycle is upon us and instead of funding dividends and buybacks, many companies are funding tangible projects. This could result in a whole different set of stock market winners and losers.
DeepSeek has surprised investors, but it shouldn't: it's part of a normal capital cycle. Big tech companies have made a lot of money, which attracts capital and competition, and eventually hurts returns and incumbent share prices.
Less government involvement in the economy and markets is long overdue. But investors need to consider what a reduced government role may mean for the profitability of businesses that are unable to offset rising cost pressures.
The world is entering a higher cost environment which will hit the profits of companies in many sectors. A key beneficiary will be commodities, where supply shortages are meeting increasing demand from AI and green energy.
Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.
Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.
Extreme wealth concentration is no longer just a side effect of growth. As inequality deepens, its consequences are shifting from a social concern to a broader threat to economic stability and democratic resilience.
AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.
The 2026 budget has reignited Australia’s tax reform debate, but more work remains. Beneath the surface lies a harder question: what structural reforms are needed to make the country's tax system fit for the future?
The Budget's negative gearing changes defer deductions rather than deny them, yet a worked example shows quarantining can halve the tax benefit's present value for buyers of established dwellings.
In just four years, Australia's private capital landscape has transformed. We are seeing changes across who deploys capital, how deals are structured and why new platforms and investor pathways are rapidly emerging.