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18 December 2025
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While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.
Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.
The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and it's an apt metaphor for investment choices. In 2021, as investors hunted in the bush for decent returns, demand overwhelmed supply. Cash is the bird in the hand.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.
Trump may be right on two trends: nations are shifting from aspiration to essentials and from global dependence to self-reliance, pushing capital toward security, infrastructure, and energy.
Gold has had a remarkable 2025, with the spot price likely to post its strongest return since 1971. This explores the key factors that will shape the outlook for the yellow metal next year, and long-term.
Critics like Clime's John Abernethy have questioned many aspects of defined benefit pensions for public servants. This is an attempted rebuttal, suggesting these pensions aren't the problem they're made out to be.
Aircraft constraints are holding back global air travel. Those constraints should soon ease which combined with a structural boom in travel demand could be a boon for global airport stocks.
Search is changing fast. AI tools like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini are reshaping how we find information, opening new opportunities for innovation, user engagement, and future revenue growth.