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Home / Author: Robert M. Almeida

Robert M. Almeida

Markets are about to get a whole lot harder

As the world shifts away from one of artificially suppressed interest rates and cheap manufacturing, investors will need to carefully consider how companies are positioned to navigate the new higher-cost paradigm.

Passive investing is bad for capitalism

While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.

The far-flung past as prologue

The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.

Beware the hit to earnings in 2023

Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.

In portfolio construction, actions speak louder than words

Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.

Beware the headlines as averages don’t tell the whole story

Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.

Latest Updates

Economy

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

Retirement

Navigating the next stage of life in retirement

Retirement planning is more than just saving enough money. Long-term care needs, housing choices, and social networks are just as critical for a happy and enjoyable life.

Strategy

Showcasing your value in the age of AI shortcuts

Knowledge is becoming commoditized in the age of artificial intelligence but experience, taste, and judgement are still at a premium.

Planning

Financial advice as the pathway to economic security

Financial advice can lead to improved financial literacy, a healthier super balance and a higher standard of living in retirement. Is now the time to give yourself the gift of financial advice?

Economy

The overlooked driver of energy inflation

The impact of energy policy on inflation in Australia is often overlooked. Transitioning to renewable energy can lead to inflated costs that affect the entire economy and productivity growth.

Economy

A 2026 rotation story: Europe’s undervalued small caps

In 2026, Europe is poised for a 'Goldilocks' scenario with cooling inflation and lower rates, driven by fiscal stimulus. Small caps offer an attractive entry point before capital rotation.

Investment strategies

What we do when things go up (a lot)

Recent price spikes, particularly gold's surge, trigger behavioral responses like availability bias, storytelling, extrapolation, and FOMO, which create self-reinforcing feedback loops influencing investor sentiment and market trends.

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