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Home / Author: Robert M. Almeida

Robert M. Almeida

The bull market in commodities may be just starting

The world is entering a higher cost environment which will hit the profits of companies in many sectors. A key beneficiary will be commodities, where supply shortages are meeting increasing demand from AI and green energy.

Markets are about to get a whole lot harder

As the world shifts away from one of artificially suppressed interest rates and cheap manufacturing, investors will need to carefully consider how companies are positioned to navigate the new higher-cost paradigm.

Passive investing is bad for capitalism

While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.

The far-flung past as prologue

The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.

Beware the hit to earnings in 2023

Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.

In portfolio construction, actions speak louder than words

Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.

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Planning

How the typical Australian Family could save $844,350 in taxes

The value of a testamentary trust is not determined by wealth alone. Depending on circumstances, it can reduce the tax burden on inherited income, create efficiencies and help build intergenerational wealth.

Superannuation

There's a reason why your super is locked up until your 60s

For decades, it seemed settled. Then one controversial idea reignited a debate that could reshape the financial future of millions. The real question isn’t who’s right or wrong, but whether a long-held assumption deserves another look.

Property

The housing slide could become a crash

House prices are sliding across Australia, yet the most dangerous ingredient for a housing crash is still missing. If job losses surge amid growing economic risks, today's correction could become a historic property downturn.

Retirement

Under-retiring: The greatest retirement risk in a generation

Two retirees. Similar savings. Completely different lives. New research from Challenger reveals why some Australians confidently spend in retirement while others hold back and the overlooked factor shaping retirement decisions.

Five risks to watch in markets

Things you may often hear are: a recession is around the corner, markets are overpriced, the AI sector is about to flop at any moment. It’s like the never-ending laundry pile that sits in my house, it never really disappears.

Investment strategies

Do you qualify as ‘rich’?

What does it mean to be 'rich'? For something so universally desired, it is surprisingly difficult to define. That ambiguity creates a challenge for investors and raises a bigger question about what financial success really looks like.

Investment strategies

If you’re worried about your bond portfolio, you’re missing the point

Most investors think they know what bonds are for. But when markets turn volatile, a surprising misunderstanding can lead to costly decisions. Here’s the overlooked lesson that could change how you view your portfolio.

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