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14 November 2026
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The world is entering a higher cost environment which will hit the profits of companies in many sectors. A key beneficiary will be commodities, where supply shortages are meeting increasing demand from AI and green energy.
As the world shifts away from one of artificially suppressed interest rates and cheap manufacturing, investors will need to carefully consider how companies are positioned to navigate the new higher-cost paradigm.
While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.
Our retirement system asks one account to do two very different jobs. A dedicated "rainy day" account separating income from emergency savings could deliver better outcomes and greater peace of mind for retirees.
Democrats have regained control of Congress, changing the equation in Washington. Whether that proves positive for investors will depend less on the result itself and more on what happens next for growth and markets.
A reader query on the recent CGT reforms has revealed a bigger issue. One overlooked feature of the old system may have done more than compensate for inflation. As we move to indexation, are we forgetting to reward risk?
Rising yields have made bonds attractive again, but that does not mean they will behave as expected. As inflation, fiscal pressures and geopolitical risks reshape markets, the role of bonds may be more complicated than it appears.
Income investors have endured several lean years, but signs of a recovery are emerging. As opportunities improve, investors face an important choice between chasing headline yields and building a reliable source of income.
Investors love simple rules, especially when markets appear stretched. Yet some of the strongest returns have arrived when the outlook seemed least attractive. This leaves an important question that history struggles to answer.
Investor obsession with AI is attracting unprecedented amounts of capital and confidence. But beneath the excitement lies uncertainties about returns, funding and risks that enthusiasts may not be paying enough attention to.