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Earnings Multiple

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Stop asking if there's a stock market bubble. Ask this instead.

Markets continue to push onwards despite valuations looking stretched by historical standards. Bubble talk is rampant, however investors may be focusing on the wrong thing. The real story sits deeper than the headlines.

US shares: Ambitious multiples on ambitious EPS forecasts

Here's a detailed look at how current valuations and profit forecasts for the S&P 500 stack up versus history. The answer? Both seem excessive, making the market vulnerable to a correction or worse.

Searching for value in tech stocks

Just because a stock is cheap doesn't necessarily make it good value. This uses case studies in the tech sector to help identify when stocks trading on 30x earnings may be inexpensive and when others on 10x may be value traps.

Market narratives are seductive and dangerous

Human beings are storytelling animals yet it’s the job of investors to separate truth from fiction. And the truth lies in numbers, the company earnings and the multiples attached to those earnings.

Why valuation multiples fail in an exponential world

Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.

Low rates and the equity risk premium

With investors gravitating towards ‘safer’ equities for yield, the equity risk premium is playing an important role in the variance of earnings multiples between defensive and cyclical sectors of the Australian equity market.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Noel Whittaker’s take on the budget

Marketed as a fix for inequality and housing affordability, the latest budget instead delivers a tangle of tax changes that leave everyday Australians worse off.

Australia has no death duties. Technically.

Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth passes between generations. Now, the 2026 budget adds another layer.

How to minimise tax with a will

Inheritance tax implications in Australia may surprise some, as poor estate planning without proper wills or trusts can lead to costly tax bills and delays for beneficiaries.

Testamentary trusts post-budget: Estate planning, tax reform and the ‘death tax’ debate

Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.

Back to the future - Why indexing CGT is a good idea

A return to indexation of capital gains would be a fairer way to compensate households for the effects of inflation than the current discount. Importantly, it opens the door to future, broader reforms to stop the taxation of inflation.

The investment mistake killing your returns

Retail investors face an increasingly complex product environment, but simplicity may be the most overlooked advantage in building a portfolio you can actually live with.

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