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26 April 2024
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Everyone seems to have an opinion on house prices and not all of it is based on fact. Here is an analysis of the current supply and demand factors influencing residential property and the stocks poised to outperform.
Despite recent residential property price falls, housing affordability is getting worse, not better, driven by rising interest rates. Our numbers suggest further property price declines will be difficult to avoid.
Why do house prices move in an up-and-flat pattern rather than up-and-down like shares? When house prices start to fall, supply reduces to create a new equilibrium, rather than needing even more price reductions.
There have been regular falls in real house prices in the past. Some of the 40% gains of 2020 to 2021 will be given back now but housing is a long-term investment and fundamentals are likely to remain strong.
With the Coalition losing the 2022 election, its policy to allow young people to access super goes back on the shelf. But lowering the downsizer age to 55 was supported by Labor. Check the merits of both policies.
Governments borrowing for roads, infrastructure and items that have a long-term payback is good debt, but cash handouts for the sole purpose of getting the government back into power is 'bad' debt.
What is APRA worried about? Most mortgagees can easily absorb increases in interest rates without posing a systemic threat to the banking system. Housing lending is a relatively risk-free activity for banks.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
The record run in house prices looks unsustainable but the outlook for Australian banks is for improving credit growth and earnings. For house prices to rise, the supply of credit must match demand from borrowers.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
This increased focus on affordable housing is welcome but the challenge is that investors typically require ‘market’ rate financial returns. By definition, social housing tenants cannot pay market rent.
Three key indicators are useful for predicting the short-term outlook for house prices, although tighter lockdowns make the outlook gloomier. There is enough doubt to create cause for concern.
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.
The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.