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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

  • 3 April 2025
  • 21

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

Why Australia’s roaring population growth won’t last

Australia’s population rose by 497,000 in 2022, driven by a record net overseas migration of 387,000. It's a staggering number that's grabbed headlines, yet less talked about is the continued decline in our fertility rates.

Equity investing in an inflationary environment

How do investors build resilience into equity portfolios when faced with inflation? Dividend-income could play a more important role but at extremes of inflation, global equities have tended to struggle.

Embracing the bright side of population decline

With global population expected to decline from 2064, it’s easy to focus on the negative economic outcomes. But what about the positives, such as wages growth, sustainability, and innovation and productivity improvements?

Why don't higher prices translate into inflation? Blame hedonism

Why are prices rising but not the CPI? When we measure inflation, we aren’t measuring raw price changes, we’re measuring the pleasure-adjusted or utility-adjusted price changes, and we use it incorrectly.

The effect of real wage changes on retirement incomes

The impact of real wage growth on your future retirement income depends a lot on your pre-retirement position. Will you be kept in the manner to which you have become accustomed or will some adjustments need to be made?

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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