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Return Expectations

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Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Key themes from reporting season, and what's next

Earnings season displayed green shoots in consumer spending, signs of China's economic malaise, and higher interest rates having a very different impact across companies. Here are the winners and losers.

The bank is still a terrible place to put your money

With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.

The accounting tricks that ASX companies play

It's ASX reporting season and sometimes all isn't what it seems in a company's financial accounts. Here's a guide on what to look out for when analysing financial statements to help you spot potential red flags.

Confession season is upon us: What’s next for equity markets

Companies tend to pre-position weak results ahead of 30 June, leading to earnings downgrades. The next two months will be critical for investors as a shift from ‘great expectations’ to ‘clear explanations’ gets underway.

Why starting points matter

There have been few times in the past 140 years when investors were willing to pay for more than 30 years’ worth of earnings, yet here we are around 40. This starting point does not augur well for future returns.

What do you expect from your portfolio today?

Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.

Is crypto a currency or a collectible?

Cryptocurrencies have created the perfect recipe to encourage speculation with the most important ingredient for a bubble to form being something new and shiny to attract investor attention. What's it really worth?

Great investment expectations are deluded

Many investors are deluding themselves expecting high returns without taking risks, and it has poor consequences for retirement planning and setting goals. It pays to be more realistic.

Strangers to themselves in retirement

Preferences revealed by actual investing behaviour are often different to preferences stated in surveys. Financial planners and super funds should use newer analyses that helps understand the discrepancies.

Share investors should protect the downside

Glenn Rushton is the trainer of Australia's newest world champion, boxer Jeff Horn. He's also a fund manager and he warns retirees not to forget the lessons of the GFC where even diversified holdings of blue chips suffered.

Introduction to the Market Monitor

Cuffelinks has added a new monthly feature, the 'Market Monitor', a review of economic conditions in major global markets plus an estimate of long term value across a wide range of asset classes.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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